Is Climate Change a Fermi Paradox Great Filter?

[_subgenius]

. Sub is essentially arguing that every time you roll a die, the odds of rolling a six decreases.

Nope...im arguing that if you are betting on rolling a 6, your best odds are with the first roll....odds favir the house the more you roll. which is basic stats.

But you guys are insisting that we add another side after each roll and that is what makes the 6 inevitable...and it just doesn't. You are trying to impose the law of averages onto infinite variables. again, basic stats.

[_honorentheos]

I have the sneaky suspicion that you would answer 1 in 36 if asked the odds of rolling a six once on one of two throws of a six-sided die.

[_DoubtingThomas]

It seems irrational to conclude that "statistically" there must be another earth with life

Are you talking about prokaryotic or eukaryotic life?

Nevermind the argument for how our perception insists upon a certain discernment for what it means to be "alive".

Are viruses alive?

[_DoubtingThomas]

Thinking about our species' road to the present, there have been multiple points along the way where there was a paradigm shift in the energy source that fueled and also defined the technology level available. Our move to fuels that require prehistoric carbon-based life forms may not be an available option in all cases when it comes to the possible expressions of alien life forms. Perhaps in some way being carbon-based and discovering the high energy yield of fossil fuels at the point we were capping out using wood and other similar fuels in our civilizational development might have been an unlucky but inevitable outcome once life took the carbon-based path is did here on Earth? Would silicone-based life forms have an entirely different tech tree when it comes to energy that makes climate change less likely of a concern? Would they move more easily into energy sources that aren't as climatically impactful if the high yield yet consequential option doesn't exist because they didn't have the equivalent prehistoric flora and fauna that makes it possible? Or would they be unable to make the leap from primate fuels to a source that could power a high-tech civilization? It makes for interesting speculation.

Interesting questions. I just hope the James Webb Space Telescope helps us find some answers.

[_subgenius]

It seems irrational to conclude that "statistically" there must be another earth with life. The stats can also equally conclude with we are alone....but meh, what is science without faith amiright.

Sub, Heavenly Father didn't create life on Earth. The Universe is very big and I think there is microbial life everywhere. Soon we will find out.

If it is everywhere.....

[_subgenius]

It seems irrational to conclude that "statistically" there must be another earth with life

Are you talking about prokaryotic or eukaryotic life?

scientifically speaking what does that matter? Is the implication from the OP going to move the goalpost?
Regardless, if you are prepared to produce empirical evidence/observation of the "evolutionary jump" to eukaryotic life, then have at it....and please, spare us all the fill-in-the-blank science and "makes sense" type of explanation, a.k.a. evidence supports the idea (of course it does, until it doesn't).

Nevermind the argument for how our perception insists upon a certain discernment for what it means to be "alive".

Are viruses alive?[/quote]
on other earth-like planets?

[_Res Ipsa]

. Sub is essentially arguing that every time you roll a die, the odds of rolling a six decreases.

Nope...im arguing that if you are betting on rolling a 6, your best odds are with the first roll....odds favir the house the more you roll. which is basic stats.

But you guys are insisting that we add another side after each roll and that is what makes the 6 inevitable...and it just doesn't. You are trying to impose the law of averages onto infinite variables. again, basic stats.

Yep. Doubled down on nonsense. We're not adding sides to the die. You roll the die once for each planet. The more planets, the more rolls. The more rolls, the better chance that one of those rolls will be a six. Which is basic stats...

You are confusing the odds of rolling a six with what Vegas charges for a bet and pays off for a win.

[Guest]

I haven't google this yet because I don't want to poison my own well in case someone has an answer, but has anyone considered that we might just be in a interpluvial period? I was just watching a Joe Rogan video with a guy named Dan Flores because they were talking about short-nosed eta: short-faced(!) bears and whatnot, and this guy starts talking about interpluvial periods and how they impacted extinction events and human migration. I thought it was interesting.

Anyway. Food for thought. We're in an interpluvial period.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/interpluvial

Etymology
inter- +‎ pluvial

Noun
interpluvial (plural interpluvials)

(geology) A period of decreased rainfall.
Related terms
interglacial

- Doc

[_Res Ipsa]

I haven't google this yet because I don't want to poison my own well in case someone has an answer, but has anyone considered that we might just be in a interpluvial period? I was just watching a Joe Rogan video with a guy named Dan Flores because they were talking about short-nosed bears and whatnot, and this guy starts talking about interpluvial periods and how they impacted extinction events and human migration. I thought it was interesting.

Anyway. Food for thought. We're in an interpluvial period.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/interpluvial

Etymology
inter- +‎ pluvial

Noun
interpluvial (plural interpluvials)

(geology) A period of decreased rainfall.
Related terms
interglacial

- Doc

You mean as an explanation for climate change?

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

You mean as an explanation for climate change?

Sure. This guy, Dan Flores, said something to the effect that 5,000 years ago it was 6-8 degrees warmer than it is now.

- Doc