Thank You CNN

[_DoubtingThomas]

Now I know not to support Kamala Harris in 2020.

"Why Kamala Harris is the new Democratic frontrunner"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/12/politics ... index.html

What the Hell is wrong with CNN? I haven't seen any scientific poll showing that Harris is the front runner.

[_EAllusion]

It's their horse race power ranking based on how well positioned they think she is to win the nomination. They give their reasons in the article. Specifically, they think she checks the identity boxes that Democratic voters recently have shown a heavy bias for and she is popular in California, which is going to have a early primary in 2020 with a huge number of delegates up for grabs. Harry Enten is a very smart political forecaster. Chris Cillizza is a moron who is the living avatar of everything that is wrong with non-right wing media. Split the difference.

[_EAllusion]

I don't know why two CNN reporters arguing a year and a half out from the primaries that Harris should top predictions would make you not want to vote for Harris. I mean, that makes zero sense to me. I don't know if you're still high on Sanders or not, but his polling is pretty bad right now and he has the highest name recognition outside of Joe Biden of all the names out there. That's a really bad sign for him. He'd have to make a McCain in '08 type of comeback at this point.

[_EAllusion]

Amy Klobucher is the forecasters dark horse despite polling under 5% in actual polls because she's way more popular in Minnesota than a generic Democrat should be. First, this should give her a leg-up in Iowa since it is right next door. Second, the top issue for Democrats in the 2020 primary has a really good chance of being who is perceived as best situated to beat Donald Trump, and Klubocher is extremely well situated to beat Donald Trump. She's got a history of being extremely popular with the exact kind of Midwestern voter that Donald Trump basically needs to win, is very resistant to being scandalized by an attack machine, and is generically inoffensive.

Also, Democrats are voting heavily for women at the moment, and she is a woman.

[_EAllusion]

I just looked and betting markets have Kamala Harris as the favorite, so Enten isn't out of left field here.

(You can buy into Lady Gaga for the same odds as Doug Jones. Lol.)

[_Xenophon]

(You can buy into Lady Gaga for the same odds as Doug Jones. Lol.)

I would have expected the odds for Jones to be lower...

[_MeDotOrg]

How many people predicted in 2014 that Trump would be President in 2016? The early front-runner in 2016 was Scott Walker, who was just voted out of office. We are in an incredibly fluid time in politics. How much of the political climate will be defined by our current problems is a huge variable. But we have 24 hours of news to fill every day, so let's talk about 2020.

[Guest]

she is popular in California

She has a 20% favorable opinion and a 17% unfavorable opinion. 51% of primary voters have never heard of her. I didn't find any approval/disapproval ratings of her in California.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/09/1 ... ctions.pdf

I don't know why two CNN reporters arguing a year and a half out from the primaries that Harris should top predictions would make you not want to vote for Harris. I mean, that makes zero sense to me.

Declaring someone the front runner does help. It's the bandwagon effect. CNN is trying to help Kamala Harris with good headlines.

, which is going to have a early primary in 2020 with a huge number of delegates up for grabs. .

You have Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina voting first. Then you have Alabama, Massachusetts North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia on the same day. If you are running for office you don't want California to be your first state.

Democratic voters recently have shown a heavy bias for

Yes, it's called racism and sexism, but in the general election people in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania won't care about gender or color.

[_DoubtingThomas]

the number of major donors in the state who would gladly help fund Harris' national ambitions.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/12/politics ... index.html

[_EAllusion]

Declaring someone the front runner does help. It's the bandwagon effect. CNN is trying to help Kamala Harris with good headlines.

I'm pretty sure CNN is trying to attract readers and they are doing it by having one of the best political forecasters in data journalism write about his thoughts of who is mostly likely to win because people like to read horse race coverage. He thinks that Kamala Harris should be thought of as the most likely in a highly split field. Again, this is what prediction markets, a generally good forecasting tool, currently think as well.

You have Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina voting first. Then you have Alabama, Massachusetts North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia on the same day. If you are running for office you don't want California to be your first state.

California has a massive number of delegates. It normally is irrelevant because the primaries are decided by then, but this time around it is close enough to the beginning that anyone who is competitive there probably has a good shot of being in the "inner circle" of viable candidates. Harris is from California, has cruised to election victory there, and there is an extremely strong bias towards primary candidates in their home states. Additionally, California is a major base of wealth for Democratic donors and Harris has closer connections to them than the average primary candidate does.

Yes, it's called racism and sexism, but in the general election people in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania won't care about gender or color.

There was a strong bias among Democrats for female candidates in all three of those states in 2018. Nationally, I believe Dave Wasserman calculated that being a woman gave around a 20 point bounce in Democratic primaries without an incumbent. That's a crazy-large edge. They're not passing judgment on whether this bias makes sense - those who are conscious of it probably reason that there is value in increasing minority representation in government - they're just noting its existence as something to consider when predicting. I'd add that taking diversity into account in a voting decision makes a hell of a lot more sense to me than demeriting a candidate because you think CNN considers them a front-runner. I can't think of any plausible reason to ignore merit to be contrarian about band-wagoning front-runners.