What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

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_canpakes
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _canpakes »

subgenius wrote:Read the documents, there is no evidence or even indication that campaign money was used illegally or that Trump colluded...but again, feel free to QUOTE where those documents say such a thing.


“I tried to swerve several times but the tree still hit me...”
_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

canpakes wrote:
subgenius wrote:Read the documents, there is no evidence or even indication that campaign money was used illegally or that Trump colluded...but again, feel free to QUOTE where those documents say such a thing.


“I tried to swerve several times but the tree still hit me...”


I don't know why I bother...

During the campaign, Cohen played a central role in two similar schemes to purchase the rights to stories – each from women who claimed to have had an affair with Individual-1 – so as to suppress the stories and thereby prevent them from influencing the election. With respect to both payments, Cohen acted with the intent to influence the 2016 presidential election. Cohen coordinated his actions with one or more members of the campaign, including through meetings and phone calls, about the fact, nature, and timing of the payments. In particular, and as Cohen himself has now admitted, with respect to both payments, he acted in coordination with and at the direction of Individual-1. As a result of Cohen’s actions, neither woman spoke to the press prior to the election.


Cohen kept detailed email trails and routinely recorded all of his conversations. I wouldn't doubt he provided either or both types of recorded transactions with "Individual-1" to the FBI.

You know... I think Trump is going to jail. 2019 is going to get weirder than the last two years. Amazing.

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_Jersey Girl
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Cohen kept detailed email trails and routinely recorded all of his conversations. I wouldn't doubt he provided either or both types of recorded transactions with "Individual-1" to the FBI.

You know... I think Trump is going to jail. 2019 is going to get weirder than the last two years. Amazing.

- Doc


Wasn't there a phone call recording between Trump/Cohen released a while back? It may have been the catch and kill issue. But I do think there was a call release.
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
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_Chap
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Chap »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:...

You know... I think Trump is going to jail. 2019 is going to get weirder than the last two years. Amazing.

- Doc


Yeah, but I mean, as Trump, says, there's still no smocking gun, is there?

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Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_DarkHelmet
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _DarkHelmet »

Chap wrote:
Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:...

You know... I think Trump is going to jail. 2019 is going to get weirder than the last two years. Amazing.

- Doc


Yeah, but I mean, as Trump, says, there's still no smocking gun, is there?

Image


Trump would struggle to spell "cat" even if you spotted him the "k" and the "a".
"We have taken up arms in defense of our liberty, our property, our wives, and our children; we are determined to preserve them, or die."
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_EAllusion
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _EAllusion »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Cohen kept detailed email trails and routinely recorded all of his conversations. I wouldn't doubt he provided either or both types of recorded transactions with "Individual-1" to the FBI.

You know... I think Trump is going to jail. 2019 is going to get weirder than the last two years. Amazing.

- Doc
Trump is facing a legitimate chance of being prosecuted and sent to jail the second he's out of office, whenever that is. Would you trade a Trump resignation for a Pence pardon? I'm not sure I would. I'd have to think about it more.
_subgenius
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _subgenius »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:...With respect to both payments, Cohen acted with the intent to influence the 2016 presidential election....he acted in coordination with and at the direction of Individual-1. As a result of Cohen’s actions, neither woman spoke to the press prior to the election.

Cohen kept detailed email trails and routinely recorded all of his conversations. I wouldn't doubt he provided either or both types of recorded transactions with "Individual-1" to the FBI.

You know... I think Trump is going to jail. 2019 is going to get weirder than the last two years. Amazing.

- Doc


So you have now confirmed what Trump already has confirmed, inasmuch as he said he reimbursed Cohen for the money paid...this is not an enlightenment....but your nice little pink letters fail to implicate Individual-1 with a campaign finance violation or collusion.
How are you Literally concluding that Trump committed a felony from that sentence?....Literally.

By your own admission and citation you recognize that Cohen maybe/kinda/should/probably/might have a record of the transaction...a transaction that is already recognized by Trump as occurring. But now you are assuming (Literally assuming) that Cohen has a record of this transaction being done with campaign money? with the Russians?....again, what you got is Cohen being directed to pay a stripper to not blackmail Trump at Trump's request; and Trump stating that Cohen was reimbursed from personal money.....so again, show us the Literal Felony committed by Trump or even committed by Individual-1....and try to do it without your assuming there is "yet to be revealed" evidence.

(spoiler alert: paying someone to be quiet about a non-crime is not illegal, regardless of an election....but feel free to shift over to the far stretch on Cohen's email address, because that is a better reach than this in-kind donation fruit....but even then, jail? geez Obama's campaign violations which were also about un-reported donations only resulted in a fine....so yeah keep reaching for that felony yo!)
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
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_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

I see that we're at an impasse with subgenius. He should write the Mueller team and specifically the SDNY to let them know that they're reading this in error:

If a campaign financing offense violates one of FECA’s prohibitions and was committed in a manner calculated to conceal it from the public, the Justice Department also may pursue the matter as a conspiracy to defraud the United States under 18 U.S.C. § 371, or as a false statement or record under 18 U.S.C. § 1001 or §1519.


From the DOJ’s handbook on Federal Prosecution of Election Offenses, Eighth Edition, December 2017:

Was the violation committed under circumstances suggesting that the conduct was “knowing and willful?” FECA violations become potential crimes when they are committed knowingly and willfully, that is, by offenders who acted with knowledge that their conduct was against the law. While this is at times a difficult element to satisfy, examples of evidence supporting the element include: (a) an attempt to disguise or conceal financial activity regulated by FECA; (b) status or prior experience as a campaign official, candidate, professional fundraiser, or lawyer; and (c) efforts by campaigns to notify contributors of applicable campaign finance law (e.g., donor card warnings).


I feel bad that the FBI doesn't have subgenius' intellect working for them. It's truly astonishing.

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_Chap
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Chap »

It's the corporate payments stupid.

Michael Cohen plea deal: How were campaign finance laws broken?

“I used a company under my control to make the payment (to Daniels)” Cohen told the judge, adding that “the monies used were later repaid by the candidate.”

What’s wrong with paying the women? How did it violate the law?

Under federal campaign finance law, individual campaign contributions are limited to $2,700 per individual, or $5,400 for a couple, for each election cycle – that includes primary elections and the general election.

Federal law bars direct corporate contributions to federal candidates. The money paid to Daniels – $130,000 – was moved through a limited-liability company called Essential Consultants. Cohen created the company a few weeks before the election. The payment to Daniels was a campaign contribution, according to Cohen, who said in court on Tuesday that when he paid Daniels off, he was acting on behalf of the campaign with the aim of helping Trump win the presidency.

In other words, Cohen was making a campaign-related expenditure on behalf of the campaign.

There would have been no problem, legally, with making such a payment to Daniels if the Trump campaign had paid the $130,000 with donated contributions and reported it to the Federal Election Commission.

Prosecutors made it clear that the payment was a campaign contribution because Cohen was repaid by the Trump Organization after he submitted “sham” invoices for legal work.

Originally, after the deal came to light, Cohen said he acted on his own and had not been reimbursed by the Trump Organization, or by the campaign. He recanted that statement on Tuesday.

What does the law say about this case?

    The Federal Election Campaign Act states, in part, that while individuals are limited to making donations of $2,700 to presidential candidates, businesses may not make direct contributions to candidates for president.
    When candidates use or loan their personal funds for campaign use, they are making contributions to their campaigns, but contributions by candidates are not subject to limits. In other words, they may spend whatever they want on their campaigns.
    It is a felony offense to conspire to make a campaign contribution that exceeds $25,000.

How does this affect Trump?

If what Cohen says is true, Trump conspired to violate campaign finance laws by directing payments to keep the women quiet so as to boost his election prospects.
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_Chap
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Chap »

You know, I think DrC, me, and the rest of us reacting to subgenius are well described by the old Chinese proverb:

Proverb:"To play the lute to a cow" is used by Chinese people to describe someone who is telling something complicated to <a person incapable of understanding it>, ...


Image
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
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