What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Guliani is out there defending Trump by arguing his crimes weren't that serious because "nobody got killed." People are having a field day pointing out that this is coming from one of the most vociferous advocates in the country for throwing the book at people guilty of low-level offenses that are questionably even crimes in the first place on the (incorrect) theory that this deters more serious crime. But for me, I take it as a reminder that "law and order" from the "law and order" party is more of code for corrupt authoritarianism that means the law should shield the in-group and punish the out-group.

You have a solid point. I think it’s more than that, To be honest. Yes, Trump is a lying, domineering, narcissistic incompetent powermonger who has been a national joke his entire adult life, but what I wish people would remember is that he still has a 'successful' business (for an extremely loose definition of successful; it still nominally exists) despite his most significant weakness being he's an idiot.

I wish people would remember that (his idiocy and personality traits) when they say the government should be “run like a business” or that corporate-suite experience is sufficient qualification for high office, or that government services will be cheaper and more effective if privatized. Trump wouldn’t be in nearly the legal trouble he is now if he’d stuck to operating a fraudulent business and mugging for the camera, because the business world tolerates would-be dictators, including ones much more effective and canny than Trump. Ones who are smart enough not to seek the Presidency.

The US system was designed so as to hedge against the ambitions of would-be dictators and make the government accountable to the people. Ironically if you proposed that again today, there’s a substantial fraction of the US population who would decry that as Socialism. Corporations in their modern form didn’t exist in the late 1700's, but the influence and lack of accountability of the most powerful corporate executives would be much more familiar to Machiavelli than that of a modern western political leader, and the legal structures that constrain the power of public office do not apply to them.

The US founding fathers could not have foreseen what is effectively the rise of privatized tyranny, rivaling and even supplanting government authority, and it’s something we are going to have to address as a democracy.

- Doc

[_Maksutov]

I'm not worried about Trump making it to 2020 - he won't. The real question is, can Pence? He's up to his neck in lying about the Flynn affair.

What chance that Nancy Pelosi becomes President?

Much better chances than there were.

What a cluster. The Ds helped elect Trump by insisting on Hillary. The Relief Society could make Pelosi president because they won't abandon their turd monster and his crew. God help America.

[_EAllusion]

Republicans will never, ever impeach Pence if it means making a Democrat president. That is a non-starter. There is absolutely nothing he could do that would remove him from office. This is kinda scary when you think about it. The only thing thing that makes a Trump impeachment and removal even thinkable is knowledge that removing him installs a different Republican.

You can have a video of Pence doing something heinous like confessing to sexual assault on tape, then having dozens of accusers offer independently corroborating stories about how he assaulted them and it won't mean a god damn thing to them.

[_EAllusion]

The US founding fathers could not have foreseen what is effectively the rise of privatized tyranny, rivaling and even supplanting government authority, and it’s something we are going to have to address as a democracy.

- Doc

You might enjoy this book:

https://www.amazon.com/Private-Governme ... 0691176515

It's exactly on this subject and is one of the best philosophy books intended for mass consumption to be published in some time.

ETA: I suppose I should include the book's self-promotional blurb:

Why our workplaces are authoritarian private governments―and why we can't see it

One in four American workers says their workplace is a "dictatorship." Yet that number probably would be even higher if we recognized most employers for what they are―private governments with sweeping authoritarian power over our lives, on duty and off. We normally think of government as something only the state does, yet many of us are governed far more―and far more obtrusively―by the private government of the workplace. In this provocative and compelling book, Elizabeth Anderson argues that the failure to see this stems from long-standing confusions. These confusions explain why, despite all evidence to the contrary, we still talk as if free markets make workers free―and why so many employers advocate less government even while they act as dictators in their businesses.

In many workplaces, employers minutely regulate workers' speech, clothing, and manners, leaving them with little privacy and few other rights. And employers often extend their authority to workers' off-duty lives. Workers can be fired for their political speech, recreational activities, diet, and almost anything else employers care to govern. Yet we continue to talk as if early advocates of market society―from John Locke and Adam Smith to Thomas Paine and Abraham Lincoln―were right when they argued that it would free workers from oppressive authorities. That dream was shattered by the Industrial Revolution, but the myth endures.

Private Government offers a better way to talk about the workplace, opening up space for discovering how workers can enjoy real freedom.

Based on the prestigious Tanner Lectures delivered at Princeton University's Center for Human Values, Private Government is edited and introduced by Stephen Macedo and includes commentary by cultural critic David Bromwich, economist Tyler Cowen, historian Ann Hughes, and philosopher Niko Kolodny.

[_Dr Exiled]

I don't think paying off mistresses is going to be enough to get rid of Trump as the public probably expects or at least isn't that surprised that Trump did this. The Senate won't convict unless there is more. Also, it looks like Mueller is going to wrap up the Russia investigation soon, without much to it. So, I think it is up to the Democrats to put up someone the people want. It shouldn't be too hard to find someone who can defeat Trump in 2020. Trump's negatives are pretty high and only the most ardent supporters will remain with Trump if there is a viable alternative to him.

[_Res Ipsa]

I'm not worried about Trump making it to 2020 - he won't. The real question is, can Pence? He's up to his neck in lying about the Flynn affair.

What chance that Nancy Pelosi becomes President?

Pretty close to zero. Republicans control the Senate, which means they control the timing of and impeachment trial. If both Trump and Pence were impeached by the House, the Senate could try Pence and find him guilty, but then leave time between the trials for a new Veep to be nominated and confirmed. Or Pence could be persuaded to resign and a replacement confirmed before Trump is tried.

Republican leadership would rather crawl naked over burning coals mixed with glass fragments that permit Pelosi to become President.

[_EAllusion]

I'm not worried about Trump making it to 2020 - he won't. The real question is, can Pence? He's up to his neck in lying about the Flynn affair.

What chance that Nancy Pelosi becomes President?

Pretty close to zero. Republicans control the Senate, which means they control the timing of and impeachment trial. If both Trump and Pence were impeached by the House, the Senate could try Pence and find him guilty, but then leave time between the trials for a new Veep to be nominated and confirmed. Or Pence could be persuaded to resign and a replacement confirmed before Trump is tried.

Republican leadership would rather crawl naked over burning coals mixed with glass fragments that permit Pelosi to become President.

Democrats would have to approve a VP nominee in the House. If Pence is up for impeachment, there's no way Democrats would let him pick his own VP. The result of this is that Pence just never, ever is convicted in the Senate.

[_EAllusion]

The Presidential succession line probably should have the Speaker and President Pro Tempore removed in favor of cabinet offices. It would help fix these political problems.

[_canpakes]

... what I wish people would remember is that he still has a 'successful' business (for an extremely loose definition of successful; it still nominally exists) despite his most significant weakness being he's an idiot.

It helps to have had the public absorb and cover $916 million dollars in Trump’s business losses while he was failing his way to ‘success’.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... osses/amp/

[_Jersey Girl]

Apparently former New Jersey Gov. Christie has chimed in saying that they probably have evidence against Trump. Just for the record, I take Christie more seriously than I do Giuliani whom I believe is totally and completely full of crap.

Call me crazy. Just my impression.

It's been interesting trying to figure out which pathological liar is breaking from their default setting in all of this.

Christie distances himself from Trump. At least for now.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics ... index.html

Could be his history with the Kushner family or he simply knows a bad thing when he sees it.