What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

[Guest]

Considering the GOP's base is absolutely impervious to reality, as evidenced by subgenius' and Ajax's posting here, I'd say the 25th is not even close to being reality.

Had Matthis not stepped down and is being shown the door before his proposed transition timeline, I'd certainly agree. Now I think it is possible the GOP members of the Senate and House may reach out to Pence at some point if the crazy gets even worse than we've seen the last week or two. subbie is, as you say, more of an anti-liberal than a Trump supporter. Ajax, OTOH, certainly represents his base but it's worth keeping in mind Ajax probably couldn't name a single politician holding national office he views with the same regard as Trump. Everyone is a RINO to people like Ajax.

There's a chance for 25th Amendment action where I wouldn't have thought so just a few weeks ago.

And furthermore, unless Democrats get off the SJW thing and provide a genuinely together and compelling candidate we're going to get 4 more years of Trump (if he doesn't die in office of a heart attack). Considering they care more about judges and abortion all of this stuff falls under the category of eating a crap sandwich and making Liberals smell your breath. They literally don't give a flying “F” about anything that doesn't have an elephant stamped on it.

- Doc

The divisions amonst those who are more likely to vote Democrat than for a 2nd Trump term are almost certainly the biggest threat to seeing him successfully defeated. It only took his loyal +/-30% to wittle down the field of Republican candidates precisely because there was never a sufficient majority view that the threat he posed was so significant it was worth putting every other disagreement to see him go do early. While every potential D vote in 2020 is united against Trump, everyone thinks there are just as flawed Democrat candidates who will be in the spotlight during the Primary. If American Presidential politics can be counted on to deliver anything, it's disgust with two people who will be left. The relentless bombardment of crap that is thrown around ensures this. And let's face it. Marketing works despite our all being so immersed in it we know when we're being manipulated by it yet can't stop ourselves from being taken along for the ride.

[_Jersey Girl]

snip

Yes and now he's got Mattis out the door by Jan 1 and temp replaced with his second as acting.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

The divisions amonst those who are more likely to vote Democrat than for a 2nd Trump term are almost certainly the biggest threat to seeing him successfully defeated. It only took his loyal +/-30% to wittle down the field of Republican candidates precisely because there was never a sufficient majority view that the threat he posed was so significant it was worth putting every other disagreement to see him go do early. While every potential D vote in 2020 is united against Trump, everyone thinks there are just as flawed Democrat candidates who will be in the spotlight during the Primary. If American Presidential politics can be counted on to deliver anything, it's disgust with two people who will be left. The relentless bombardment of crap that is thrown around ensures this. And let's face it. Marketing works despite our all being so immersed in it we know when we're being manipulated by it yet can't stop ourselves from being taken along for the ride.

Yeah, I've read around half a dozen articles detailing Russian efforts to split off Democratic votes by plugging Jill Stein's Presidential campaign:



https://thinkprogress.org/newly-release ... 8ee05adcb/

/\
Russian Twitter accounts stumped hard for her and Bernie.

- Doc

[_honorentheos]

I read an article today about Bernie supporters going after O'Rourke. O'Rourke hasn't even declared yet though it seems likely. Personally, Bernie bros hold a spot next to Trump supporters and Ron Paul Re-love-utionaries in the lowest of esteem I can muster for a group of political supporters. They are modern dittoheads with a similar mix of passion, predigested talking points they imagine to be superiorly informed political views, and douche-baggerie.

[_honorentheos]

Regarding the 25th Amendment, here are the current occupants of the sixteen positions who would be involved in making the declaration to Congress that Trump is not fit to serve:

Vice-President: Mike Pence, and who is essential to the process. Pence's support of this path would likely require Trump losing the support of evangelical Christians. Unfortunately neither the economy nor the unilateral military moves are likely to do this on their own. But with early 2019 looking like it is going to be rough on both fronts, it's possible.

Secretary of State: Mike Pompeo. Absolutely loyal to Trump and his international agenda. Very unlikely to support enacting the 25th Amendment.

Secretary of the Treasury: Steven Mnuchin. I think he would support Pence if Pence went this direction.

Secretary of Defense: Essentially held by acting Secretary Patrick M. Shanahan. Space Force Patrick is a bit of an unknown but seems more concerned with the economics of the military-industrial complex than he is about the well-being of the troops. Probably loyal.

Attorney General: Matthew Whitaker, Acting AG. Loyal to a fault, literally.

Secretary of the Interior: With Zinke departing this is currently unknown.

Secretary of Agriculture: Sonny Perdue. Not sure about his loyalty. His background suggests he would be open to considering signing on if the issues behind it were right.

Secretary of Commerce:Wilbur L. Ross. His background suggests he'd have a much easier time swallowing any pill Trump put in front of him. Probably loyal.

Secretary of Labor: Alexander Acosta. Another one that is hard to predict. Has ties back to the Bush-era Republican party which suggests he may be a potential vote for incompetence.

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Alex Azar. Big pharma ties, not someone I'd think of as having the best interests of the Republic close to his heart.

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Ben Carson. The political winds would almost certainly dictate which way he goes.

Secretary of Transportation: Elaine Chao. Married to McConnell. If this gets to the point Pence is looking for votes, McConnell would have to be backing it, too. She'd be a vote for incompetence in this scenario.

Secretary of Energy: Rick Perry. Like Carson, the politics will probably influence where he sides.

Secretary of Education: Betsy DeVos. Another person I doubt cares when the question comes up as to whether or not Trump is doing such damage to Democracy he is not capable of fulfilling the duties of his office. She is probably deep in the camp of the loyalists.

Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Robert Wilkie. Hard to say I could tell you two things about Wilkie other than he isn't David Shulkin. Apparently has ties to GWB's administration. Could be another vote.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kirstjen Nielsen. Her public belittling by Trump would probably put her in support of any move by Pence if it came to that.

Based on this back-of-napkin rollcall, I think they could get eight supporters from the Cabinet if Pence was persuaded by the Senate and House Republicans they would support the move. But it would be close and not a sure thing. There would need to be real reason to believe it was necessary but impeachment would fail.

[_subgenius]

....

Based on this back-of-napkin rollcall, I think they could get eight supporters from the Cabinet if Pence was persuaded by the Senate and House Republicans they would support the move. But it would be close and not a sure thing. There would need to be real reason to believe it was necessary but impeachment would fail.

You watch too many tv melodramas...

[_canpakes]

Vice-President: Mike Pence, and who is essential to the process. Pence's support of this path would likely require Trump losing the support of evangelical Christians. Unfortunately neither the economy nor the unilateral military moves are likely to do this on their own. But with early 2019 looking like it is going to be rough on both fronts, it's possible.

Wait. There’s no possibility of that path. Should the economy crash and burn, and we find ourselves in any number of overseas conflicts, then evangelicals and preppers will interpret these events as the coming fulfillment of the End Of Times, therefore proclaiming Trump to be God’s Right Hand in those matters for ushering in that age. They will prefer to support him completely and starve to death believing this, as opposed to any consideration of the alternative idea that Trump is merely an incompetent mortal.

Religious fanaticism of the American Right really has no boundary within itself to protect against completely nonsensical belief.

[_moksha]

Republican's will not back down from Trump. He is the embodiment of all they hold dear, and that endearment could be enhanced if Trump were to dress in the Banker's outfit from the Monopoly game.

[_Gunnar]

Vice-President: Mike Pence, and who is essential to the process. Pence's support of this path would likely require Trump losing the support of evangelical Christians. Unfortunately neither the economy nor the unilateral military moves are likely to do this on their own. But with early 2019 looking like it is going to be rough on both fronts, it's possible.

Wait. There’s no possibility of that path. Should the economy crash and burn, and we find ourselves in any number of overseas conflicts, then evangelicals and preppers will interpret these events as the coming fulfillment of the End Of Times, therefore proclaiming Trump to be God’s Right Hand in those matters for ushering in that age. They will prefer to support him completely and starve to death believing this, as opposed to any consideration of the alternative idea that Trump is merely an incompetent mortal.

Religious fanaticism of the American Right really has no boundary within itself to protect against completely nonsensical belief.

That's a scary, though plausible scenario that illustrates the inherent folly of placing prime imporance on religious, faith-based convictions. The enormous number of mutually contradictory religious belief systems whose adherents cling to them despite any or all contrary evidence is the strongest evidence I can possibly imagine of the inherent unreliability of the religious faith approach to truth. It is disheartening to me how many people fail to see that nothing is more likely to be false than that which can only be justified by appealing to claims of divine authority, no matter who or what claims such authority!

[_honorentheos]

Vice-President: Mike Pence, and who is essential to the process. Pence's support of this path would likely require Trump losing the support of evangelical Christians. Unfortunately neither the economy nor the unilateral military moves are likely to do this on their own. But with early 2019 looking like it is going to be rough on both fronts, it's possible.

Wait. There’s no possibility of that path. Should the economy crash and burn, and we find ourselves in any number of overseas conflicts, then evangelicals and preppers will interpret these events as the coming fulfillment of the End Of Times, therefore proclaiming Trump to be God’s Right Hand in those matters for ushering in that age. They will prefer to support him completely and starve to death believing this, as opposed to any consideration of the alternative idea that Trump is merely an incompetent mortal.

Religious fanaticism of the American Right really has no boundary within itself to protect against completely nonsensical belief.

The evangelical support hurdle is a high one. Neither the economy nor uncoordinated military movement would likely matter. I do think they would reconsider if the investigation results align to form an inescapable conclusion. The Russian ties becoming so obviously treasonous and offensive it can't be overlooked as fighting liberal evil with any means necessary might be what it takes, but it seems possible. Not likely, but given it seemed impossible mere weeks ago it seems very fluid in the increasing chaos and churn.