Dow is currently in a freefall

[_EAllusion]

Throughout 2017, the conservatrolls on this board constantly bragged about stock market performance as an indication of Trump's effectiveness as President. This was mirrored across right-wing media. I take this thread of Kevin's as a on-going rebuttal thread. He has said several times, even recently, that he does not see the stock market as an effective barometer of presidential or economic performance, but is instead taking their logic on their own terms.

[_honorentheos]

Plus, Bach apparently couldn't wait to jump in on a big up day to give Kevin a "whataboutthis?", demonstrating a) they apparently follow the thread and b) it's being effective in trolling him.

Kevin has said it's basically trolling subbie and Bach for the reasons EA stated above. It hasn't been a particularly good vehicle for discussing serious questions about the health of the economy.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

I guess. It seems like an ineffective troll when the site he links in his OP states:

52 WEEK RANGE

21,712.53 - 26,951.81

Eight pages is one heck of a commitment to the troll game, no? And if the Dow gets up to, say, 24000'ish by year's end doesn't this basically make him look like a foolish 'fake news' loony tune? The "Conservatives" on this site will crow about what a great job this President is doing and Kevin will go radio silence until the next inevitable dip. It's like shooting yourself in the foot, and then bitching about the 2nd Amendment being totally ineffective.

- Doc

[_Chap]

Throughout 2017, the conservatrolls on this board constantly bragged about stock market performance as an indication of Trump's effectiveness as President. This was mirrored across right-wing media. I take this thread of Kevin's as a on-going rebuttal thread. He has said several times, even recently, that he does not see the stock market as an effective barometer of presidential or economic performance, but is instead taking their logic on their own terms.

That's how I see it. Trump himself has referred often enough to the fact that the stock market continued its pre-existing upward trajectory as obvious evidence of the success of his presidency. When it starts a period of serious falls, then that must be evidence of ... what?

It will be interesting to see what happens next. There is a thing called the 'dead cat bounce', but it may be that the mess caused by Trump's weirdness is only temporary.

[_Kevin Graham]

Here's how to know "what the ____ I'm talking about":

Oh wow, you know how to google up relevant graphs.

My remark was in reference to you constantly pretending to know why people post things, me in particular. You almost always get it wrong and then proceed to attack based on that false assumption. I thought I made that clear with the follow up comment what I was saying in the next sentence ("Feel free to demonstrate where I've said the market is a President-barometer."). Jersey Girl pulls this crap all the time too.

Kevin. What's wrong with you? You're the flipside of their ____ propaganda coin. You can actually deal in truth and still make your point about Trump, but far too often you just come off as a Lefty loon.

Nothing in this thread is about making a point about Trump. I have clarified this several times, including just this morning in my most recent comment.

Your gish gallop-y tactics of spamming up the forum with hit and run links, wild-eyed hot takes, and acerbic nonsense is exactly the kind of political 'fake news' that gave rise to Trumpers.

Just be factual, at least.

- Doc

I'm 100% factual, so what the “F” are you talking about? Your repeated meme about the true reason Trumpers exists is just stupid.

[_Kevin Graham]

Throughout 2017, the conservatrolls on this board constantly bragged about stock market performance as an indication of Trump's effectiveness as President. This was mirrored across right-wing media. I take this thread of Kevin's as a on-going rebuttal thread. He has said several times, even recently, that he does not see the stock market as an effective barometer of presidential or economic performance, but is instead taking their logic on their own terms.

Ding Ding Ding! We have a winner.

Of course, it should help to know that I had already reaffirmed this several times since the Spring. Apparently you're the only person here who actually reads the commentary.

[_Kevin Graham]

I guess. It seems like an ineffective troll when the site he links in his OP states:

52 WEEK RANGE

21,712.53 - 26,951.81

Eight pages is one heck of a commitment to the troll game, no? And if the Dow gets up to, say, 24000'ish by year's end doesn't this basically make him look like a foolish 'fake news' loony tune? The "Conservatives" on this site will crow about what a great job this President is doing and Kevin will go radio silence until the next inevitable dip. It's like shooting yourself in the foot, and then bitching about the 2nd Amendment being totally ineffective.

- Doc

This thread began when the market entered correction territory, and it is still there.

The DOW reaching 24,000 is still roughly 10% lower than what it was back in January so why would that change any of the facts as I have laid them out?

[_Kevin Graham]

Yes, that massive stock-market rebound on Boxing Day was a sucker’s rally

Many traders and investors were expecting (or hoping for) a huge rally in the stock market this week. And they got it — at least for one day.

The contrarian signs were there: bearish sentiment in the AAII survey rose to a five-and-a-half year high; at the close on Dec. 24, the technical indicator, RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) plunged well below 30 (oversold) to around 19 — a level not seen in a decade. Moreover, the financial media also turned negative, so it’s been hard to find many bullish articles.

And then, like a dream come true, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.70% and the S&P 500 SPX, -1.81% rallied 5% on the day after Christmas, shattering records and surprising nearly everyone.

Except that “the most violent, fast, parabolic countertrend rallies mostly occur inside bear markets,” veteran market technician Jeff Bierman said in an interview. “This was a ‘dead-cat bounce’ short squeeze that was engineered by the high-velocity algorithms. The market went up too far, too fast to believe it is more than a one-day wonder.”

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

This thread began when the market entered correction territory, and it is still there.

The DOW reaching 24,000 is still roughly 10% lower than what it was back in January so why would that change any of the facts as I have laid them out?

Because the Dow was ~19900 when he was sworn in. If the Dow finishes at ~24000 at the at approximately his three-year mark that's a net gain of 5000. That's not only good, it's great. It's a solid, stable, overall healthy gain; maybe even a little too healthy. It'd be amazing, for sure. If the Dow had averaged that kind of growth since I started to pay attention to and putting my money into the market when it was solidly under 10000 we'd be at ~38000 right now.

You're playing with numbers that show you're not really interested in the overall health of the American economy, but trying to use market jujitsu number bending to make Trump (and by extension the GOP) look bad when he really isn't that much of a factor other than pumping debt into the economy and idiotically paying tariff games with China. You can pick at his bad policies, but acting like the Dow is tied to his Presidency is akin to holding the butt stock of a shotgun up to your face and pulling the trigger.

Anyway. When and if the market actually adjusts this next year because Democrats refuse to keep printing money because they actually care about the dollar (hopefully), I wouldn't be surprised if the Dow takes some more consistent downturns around summertime. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump finishes out his first term closer to his starting point. That would then be a more accurate take on his Presidency's financial policies coupled with Congress' refusal to debt-finance them. We actually need that desperately, but I have a feeling both sides will be screaming at each other rather than acting on good faith and getting our finances on solid footing. I actually think it'd be a good thing if the Dow finished 2019 at ~20000 to 20500. But then again, I'm skittish and just want our economy to be slow and steady.

- Doc

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

I have a question for the combatants on this thread:

What would be an acceptable score on the Consumer Confidence Index that would indicate to you the President is doing a good job with the economy?

- Doc