Jesse Jackson Jr wrote:Keep these ambitions quiet and implement them once we control congress and the white house. I really liked how Nancy Pelosi handled selling the affordable care act to the voters. We have to pass the bill first before we can see what is actually in it.
Aw, Ajax, that's cute. Not as cute as your Maxine Waters but close.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
I can't say I have a particularly good grip on what makes this country tick nowadays. At this point I have absolutely no idea what will happen in 2020. I can say that logically and rationally, I expect a, b, and c to happen. But what does logical and rational have to do with politics now?
There is so much that can transpire between now and 2020. The impact of House and Senate investigations? Unknown. The speed at which Trump's claims of executive privilege are challenged in court? Unknown. Tax Returns? Unknown. The impact of the investigations into his businesses and charities? Unknown.
Positive things? A breakthrough with China on trade. An agreement with North Korea. A non-military solution to the crisis in Iran. A continuing strong economy. Anybody think we're going to have a DACA agreement? Anyone? How 'bout Jarod's plan for between Palestine and Israel? A show of hands?
And wildcards: War, severe natural disasters, a terrorist attack...I was tempted to say a huge mass shooting, but I fear this country is getting desensitized to these events. There could be a market crash, but that seems pretty unlikely right now. But I do think the market is due for a downturn. I don't think there is anything left in the corporate tax return goodie bag.
So if anyone wants to know what's going to happen, I think you need to work it out on a Quantum computer that has not yet been invented.
"The great problem of any civilization is how to rejuvenate itself without rebarbarization." - Will Durant "We've kept more promises than we've even made" - Donald Trump "Of what meaning is the world without mind? The question cannot exist." - Edwin Land
It is going to be extremely difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin again in 2020. I believe that Trump has a better chance of winning New Hampshire than any of those three states in 2020. As for Florida, I give Trump about a 55% chance of winning that state again in 2020.
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
Brackite wrote:It is going to be extremely difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin again in 2020. I believe that Trump has a better chance of winning New Hampshire than any of those three states in 2020. As for Florida, I give Trump about a 55% chance of winning that state again in 2020.
I'd bet on Trump winning Wisconsin again if I had to make a prediction. It's a very even state and Republicans have a whole range of voter suppression policies in place to tip the balance.
Trump appears deeply underwater now, but the fundamentals favor him enough that I think his numbers will improve as the election nears. Low information swing voters vote for incredibly stupid reasons and post-hoc rationalize it. Some of them saying they don't like Trump now will probably come around. If the election is anywhere near close, he's got a good shot at Wisconsin.
I remember four years ago I was adamant that this country would never elect another Bush. Jeb was the front runner at the time and everyone gave me a hard time for insisting he wouldn't even win the primary, much less the Presidency.
The lesson here?
It is dumb to even pretend to know what the actual odds are this far out. The odds makers 12 months from now will have a completely different set of numbers and a different order.
My gut tells me Trump can't win for the same reasons Jeb couldn't. The country is fed up.
One of the more outspoken conservatives at work asked me if I had a favorite in the Democrat race yet, mostly to mock the state of the Democrat race. I asked him who he'd vote for if it came down to Trump and someone else among any of the potential Democrat candidates and he just scoffed. I replied that's about how I see the question. It's a dumb question in July 2019 in the details of comparing Democratic candidates. On top of which I have no say in it given the way primaries work in the US and in Arizona in particular (registered Independents don't get to vote in primaries). But when it comes down to what matters the question is what does the potential Democrat nominee bring to the table compared to Trump. And it's a long time from now until the election in 2020 to be trying to flesh that out in more detail.
That said, I think having so many candidates is bad for Democrats. Mostly because Democrats are much more prone to vote based on ideological purity than Republicans. There's a very real potential that the candidate who secures the nomination will not be able to unite the party at the convention. Their ability to do so will likely have to do with their personality, their identity categories, their running mate choice. But it will also have to do with what is going on in the country at the time and how concerned people will be if Trump wins a second term. I don't think most Democrats are looking past their own individual comparisons of their ideal stable of candidates v. Trump and seeing that the supposed secure key states Democrats lost in 2016 were ones where the majority voted for Bernie over Hillary in the primaries which decided the general election.
And that is something I'm very interested in. Once primaries start and candidates begin to bring in state victories it's quite possible that states where the winner doesn't win the nomination and is ideologically removed from the nominee could once again decide the Presidency.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth? ~ Eiji Yoshikawa
