The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

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_Res Ipsa
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Re: Dr. Michael Mann... Fake Nobel Prize and Fake Hockey St

Post by _Res Ipsa »

canpakes wrote:
ldsfaqs wrote:That "email" is a TOTALLY DIFFERENT EMAIL then the one Dr David Deming got.

Where's the actual email, faqs?

Don't be a dark, evil, iniquitous, depraved, nefarious, rotten, sinful, unethical, unlawful, unrighteous, unsavory, vicious, vile, villainous, wicked, immoral, lying liary liar. Just link to the actual email.


The guy purported to be able to quote from the 10-year old e-mail, but couldn’t recall who sent it. Of course, if he had, the sender could have defended himself. Pretty convenient. FAQs may be correct that his quoting from the e-mail means that he had a copy. But that just makes his failure to release a copy look even worse.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Res Ipsa
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Re: The Raw Data didn't convince you.. So maybe data compari

Post by _Res Ipsa »

When I see FAQs claim that we can trust the dishonest cherry picker THIS time, I think of Lucy and the football.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_DarkHelmet
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Re: The 1970s Global Cooling Consensus was not a Myth... Stu

Post by _DarkHelmet »

These global warming threads have been very informative. Thanks, Res Ipsa. As I skimmed through some of the papers on cooling vs warming predictions back in the 70s, it appears climate scientists built their predictions based on their existing knowledge, of course, and they have gained more knowledge since then. While greenhouse gases were well understood, there were also cooling forces to take into account. Ultimately, those who predicted warming were proven right. However, those who predicted cooling had their reasons (and it wasn't because they watched a Tony Heller video). They believed the cooling forces, such as aerosol pollution, would more than offset the warming effect of increased CO2 production. The past 50 years have shown that the warming effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have outpaced the cooling forces. The scientific community added this information to their existing knowledgebase. As a result, there is a much larger consensus on global warming today than there was in the 70s. I'm not sure what the skeptics are trying to prove by showing that some climate scientists predicted cooling in the 70s.

And why do they call themselves skeptics when they believe anything people like Tony Heller say without question?
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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The 1970s Global Cooling Consensus was not a Myth... Stu

Post by _Res Ipsa »

DarkHelmet wrote:These global warming threads have been very informative. Thanks, Res Ipsa. As I skimmed through some of the papers on cooling vs warming predictions back in the 70s, it appears climate scientists built their predictions based on their existing knowledge, of course, and they have gained more knowledge since then. While greenhouse gases were well understood, there were also cooling forces to take into account. Ultimately, those who predicted warming were proven right. However, those who predicted cooling had their reasons (and it wasn't because they watched a Tony Heller video). They believed the cooling forces, such as aerosol pollution, would more than offset the warming effect of increased CO2 production. The past 50 years have shown that the warming effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have outpaced the cooling forces. The scientific community added this information to their existing knowledgebase. As a result, there is a much larger consensus on global warming today than there was in the 70s. I'm not sure what the skeptics are trying to prove by showing that some climate scientists predicted cooling in the 70s.

And why do they call themselves skeptics when they believe anything people like Tony Heller say without question?

You’re welcome. I enjoyed reading them as well. I loved the one about the effects of changing climate on birds in England.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

There's a Trump deregulation list that includes:

-Methane Emissions
-Clean Power Plan
-Endangered Species Act
-Waters of the U.S. Rule
-Emissions for Coal Power Plants
-Waste Prevention Rule
-Coal Ash Rule
-Chemical Release Prevention
-Scientific Transparency Rule
-Pesticide regulations
-Livestock regulations
-Oil gas and Fracking
-Power Plant Water Pollution
-Clean Air Act

among many, many others..

This is terrifying when the Fourth National Climate Assessment states:

Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities. The impacts of global climate change are already being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify in the future..

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities will continue to affect Earth’s climate for decades and even centuries. To RI's point, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states:

1,000,000 species are at risk of extinction (making this time period the 2nd-fastest extinction event on the planet by some metrics)

Holocene extinction event, indeed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_subgenius
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Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Post by _subgenius »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:There's a Trump deregulation list that includes:
...
- Doc

got any information on how the deregulation directly influences the environment/climate? as opposed to just eliminating redundancies, inefficiencies, paperwork, or financial waste?

or is just "having a titled list" enough tinder for a hair fire.
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_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

I dunno. I guess when you emplace people like:

- Rick Perry as the Secretary of Energy who once said he wanted to abolish the Department of Energy. In a CNBC interview on June 19, 2017, he downplayed the role of human activity in the recent rise of the Earth's temperature, saying natural causes are likely the main driver of climate change.

- Scott Pruitt, an oil lobbyist who had personally sued and fought the EPA for years in the interest of fossil fuel entities.

- Ryan Zinke who opened more federal lands for oil, gas and mineral exploration and extraction than any previous secretary.

- David Bernhardt who's Zinke's successor at the Interior and an oil industry lobbyist who was asked about climate change and said, "It doesn't keep me up at night."

All of these guys are big on deregulation and half of them resigned in disgrace while under investigation for being shitbags. But, then again, these are the people you apparently trust because they're not in it for the money unlike those millionaire scientists, no?

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_Brackite
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Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Post by _Brackite »

Arctic sea ice coverage drops below 1.5M square miles for second time since 1979

Sept. 13 (UPI) — For just the second time since scientists started tracking Arctic sea ice coverage in 1979, the sea ice extent has dropped below 1.5 million square miles, or 4 million square kilometers.

Every autumn, the Arctic sea ice coverage reaches its minimum extent, before expanding as temperatures rise. Though the sea ice is still shrinking, the minimum extent still days away, coverage is already approaching record lows.

“Our satellite data show that between March and April 2019, there was an unusually large decrease in the ice extent, from which the Arctic sea ice was unable to recover,” Christian Haas, a geophysicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute, said in a news release.

The Arctic’s rapid springtime melting suggested sea ice coverage was destined for an all-time low, but fluctuating temperatures during the summer helped slow the retreat. Still, melting continued through the end of the summer.

Though temperatures have now dipped below freezing, heat retained by Arctic waters continues to melt sea ice. Though ice could continue to melt into late September, it’s unlikely this year’s minimum will surpass 2012’s record low of 1.3 million square miles.

“Record or not, this year confirms the continued long-term reduction of Arctic sea ice as a result of climate change, making it ever more likely that in a few decades the Arctic will be ice free in summer,” Haas said. “This will mean drastic changes in the Arctic, with consequences for the climate and ecosystems, as well as for people, including us in Europe.”

Scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute and the University of Bremen’s Institute for Environmental Physics use satellite data to calculate the Arctic’s sea ice coverage, as well as the thickness of the region’s ice. Scientists also track atmospheric conditions, as well as air and sea surface temperatures, in order to better understand the factors that influence ice loss in the region.

Researchers are also preparing for a more intimate study of climate-ice dynamics in the Arctic. Later this month, the research icebreaker Polarstern will set sail in the Laptev Sea for the MOSAiC expedition. After locating a large pack of flowing ice to anchor to, the ship and its team of researchers will drift through the Central Arctic for 12 months.


https://www.breitbart.com/news/arctic-s ... ince-1979/

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charc ... ice-graph/
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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:There's a Trump deregulation list that includes:

-Methane Emissions
-Clean Power Plan
-Endangered Species Act
-Waters of the U.S. Rule
-Emissions for Coal Power Plants
-Waste Prevention Rule
-Coal Ash Rule
-Chemical Release Prevention
-Scientific Transparency Rule
-Pesticide regulations
-Livestock regulations
-Oil gas and Fracking
-Power Plant Water Pollution
-Clean Air Act

among many, many others..

This is terrifying when the Fourth National Climate Assessment states:

Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities. The impacts of global climate change are already being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify in the future..

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities will continue to affect Earth’s climate for decades and even centuries. To RI's point, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states:

1,000,000 species are at risk of extinction (making this time period the 2nd-fastest extinction event on the planet by some metrics)

Holocene extinction event, indeed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

- Doc


I agree, terrifying.

I grew up mostly in a small city called Bellingham, about 60 miles south of the Canadian border on Puget Sound. There's a state park a few miles south of town called Larrabee State Park. It's on one of the most gorgeous drives in Washington -- Chuckanut Drive.

I spent lots of time in Larrabee Park a kid. in Washington, the land between mean high tide and mean low tide is public, so access to Puget Sound is pretty easy. Larrabee has a couple of beaches and a boat ramp. But the best part is the rocks. Most of the shore is really, really rocky -- easy stuff to climb and scramble around. And that's what I loved to do.

My favorite part, though, was the sea life. Especially the starfish. (Yeah, I know. Sea stars. But when I was a kid, we called them star fish.) When the tide was low at Larrabee, the rocks would be covered with these beautiful purple starfish. They were gorgeous, and it would look like there were thousands of them. If I close my eyes, I can transport myself back there and see those rocks and all those purple starfish.

I've lived about 75 miles south of Larrabee for going on 40 years now. Every time I drive north, I try to make time for a detour off the freeway to Chuckanut Drive. And if I'm not in a hurry, I'll swing into the park to climb around on the rocky shore. Good memories.

A few years ago, I stopped by the park for a little rock scrambling. And there were no starfish. Not. One. And I haven't seen one since.

You see, there's this thing called Starfish Wasting Disease. The starfish just kind of dissolve. Pieces of the arms break off and crawl around at random for a while, and then just melt. And it's killed off those starfish. Not just in Larrabee. Along the whole west coast from Mexico to Alaska, ochre starfish have been decimated by the wasting disease. And something like 20 other species of sea stars, including one in Washington that isn't a just a pretty thing to look at. Sunflower stars are the primary predators of sea urchins. And where the sunflower stars die off, the urchins take over. The urchins feed on kelp, and kelp forests are where the sea live thrives in these parts. Without any check on the urchins, it's the equivalent of burning down the Amazon rainforest under water here.

Already, the kelp forests in California from Monterey to the Oregon border have been replaced by "urchin barrens." The abalone in that region are dying off. The threatened Southern Sea Otters, which live in that region, live in the kelp forests.

Now, I'm not going to tell you that global warming killed the sea stars, because scientists are still trying to figure out why it happened. But the death of the kelp forests was helped along by unusual changes in ocean currents that kept the cold, nutrient filled water from welling up along the coast and left a layer of warm water along the top. But that's not really the point.

We've known for decades that life on earth exists in a very complex web and that disrupting part of an ecosystem can crash the whole thing. Evolution drives life to fill specialized niches. And a species that has lived in a narrow range of temperatures for thousands or millions of years has no reason to adapt to temperatures or pH levels outside of that range.

Every generation for hundreds of years has left its children with a more impoverished planet than it inherited. We don't see it because of a phenomena that's been labeled "shifting baselines." Each generation labels the world it grows into as normal. And so the long-term deterioration of life on earth goes largely ignored because we can't see enough in one lifetime to understand what's happening. And we have pushed the web so hard that its resiliency is strained. And we're determined to keep pushing until it falls to pieces.

If it does, I hope it takes us with it. Give some new species a crack at things in 100 million years or so. Maybe one that is smart enough to learn not to crap in its own nest.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Res Ipsa
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Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Sea ice extent doesn't quite capture what is happening in the arctic. Measuring volume is tricky, because we don't have any way direct way to measure volume. At the University of Washington, they've been estimating volume based on different observations. Some of the extreme forecasts of an ice free arctic that you've seen are based on accelerated trends from that data. But if you want just a plain old vanilla prediction based on the 35-year linear trend, I'll make one: 2035 for the first day of a virtually ice-free arctic, plus or minus 7 years. There will continue to be ice during the winter through the end of the century.

You can handicap it yourself here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects ... e-anomaly/

I'd be delighted to be wrong.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
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