Beto is out

[_subgenius]

TL:DR
Beto quits and nobody cares...sans 1% of polled voters.

[_Xenophon]

I wonder if Beto will now reconsider running for the Senate now that he has abandoned his presidential bid. I think he could be of valuable service to the country as Senator. His chances of winning that race may be higher now than when he ran against Ted Cruz, and he came very close to beating Cruz. The way Trump's approval rating has been diminishing, I think it quite possible that his support of whatever Republican would run against Beto might be more of a liability to that candidate than an asset. Is it too late for Beto to change his mind about running for Senator in time for the 2020 election? John Cornyn, whom Beto would be up against if he decided to run has a significantly lower approval rating than Ted Cruz, whom Beto very nearly beat. Perhaps it would be worth a shot for Beto to run against him.

Speaking as a Texan and relying almost entirely on my anecdotal perception of the political climate here I think Beto's ship has sailed for the 2020 seat and I voted/donated/campaigned for the guy last time.

Yes Cornyn's approval rating is lower than Cruz's but critically his disapproval rating is significantly better. Cornyn is just not the kind of polarizing figure that causes people to hide their children from him, lambast him on late night TV or dedicate serious resources to proving he is the Zodiac Killer.

I also don't think that Beto is the same candidate that he was in 2018. The most damaging change in stance he took was over gun control. Previously he had been pretty in line with most red state Democrats, suggesting things that are already relatively popular (expanded background checks, eliminating loopholes, reduction of high capacity magazines) as opposed to his "I'm coming for your guns" schtick.

Perhaps if he had committed to the seat to start with and spent his time rallying in Texas, building up a bigger warchest and keeping on message for the state I would have a different take. But during a blue wave midterm with record turnout against one of the most unpopular politicians Texas has he came up short, I'm not seeing the dream scenario some are seeing. A lot of different pieces fell into place in 2018 and I'm not certain that lightning will strike twice so close together.

I'm not saying Texas won't or can't be purple in the not too distant future, I just think 2018 was more of an advanced indicator of what is to come, not what the state looks like right now.

[_Dr. Shades]

In 2016, Sanders stayed in the election well after he had no chance of winning.

Wait, what? I heard he had an incredibly good chance of winning, which is the entire reason why the DNC had to game the system in order to make Hillary their nominee.

[_Gunnar]

I wonder if Beto will now reconsider running for the Senate now that he has abandoned his presidential bid. I think he could be of valuable service to the country as Senator. His chances of winning that race may be higher now than when he ran against Ted Cruz, and he came very close to beating Cruz. The way Trump's approval rating has been diminishing, I think it quite possible that his support of whatever Republican would run against Beto might be more of a liability to that candidate than an asset. Is it too late for Beto to change his mind about running for Senator in time for the 2020 election? John Cornyn, whom Beto would be up against if he decided to run has a significantly lower approval rating than Ted Cruz, whom Beto very nearly beat. Perhaps it would be worth a shot for Beto to run against him.

Speaking as a Texan and relying almost entirely on my anecdotal perception of the political climate here I think Beto's ship has sailed for the 2020 seat and I voted/donated/campaigned for the guy last time.

Yes Cornyn's approval rating is lower than Cruz's but critically his disapproval rating is significantly better. Cornyn is just not the kind of polarizing figure that causes people to hide their children from him, lambast him on late night TV or dedicate serious resources to proving he is the Zodiac Killer.

I also don't think that Beto is the same candidate that he was in 2018. The most damaging change in stance he took was over gun control. Previously he had been pretty in line with most red state Democrats, suggesting things that are already relatively popular (expanded background checks, eliminating loopholes, reduction of high capacity magazines) as opposed to his "I'm coming for your guns" schtick.

Perhaps if he had committed to the seat to start with and spent his time rallying in Texas, building up a bigger warchest and keeping on message for the state I would have a different take. But during a blue wave midterm with record turnout against one of the most unpopular politicians Texas has he came up short, I'm not seeing the dream scenario some are seeing. A lot of different pieces fell into place in 2018 and I'm not certain that lightning will strike twice so close together.

I'm not saying Texas won't or can't be purple in the not too distant future, I just think 2018 was more of an advanced indicator of what is to come, not what the state looks like right now.

Thanks for that analysis. It seems very well reasoned and plausible, just like everything else I have seen you post. I have very little doubt that your take on this is more reliable and better informed than mine.

[_Some Schmo]

Above all else, to yourself beto.

Beto or not Beto. That is the question.