Self selection in conspiracy theorists

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_Res Ipsa
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Res Ipsa »

mikwut wrote:Res,

The science is primary before any other arguments of complexity. Or should I understand you as saying that if you have to believe a whole lot of people were involved (which I reject the hyperbole Doc stated) you reject the scientific arguments made in the paper? I would think debunking the science the paper presents would be primary.

mikwut


The arguments you summarized are a mix of science based claims and fallacious thinking. Here’sa good example. The authors of your article start with the fairly trivial claim that the airplane’s kinetic energy was basically used up in damaging the airplanes themselves and structural components. They then claim that means that there wasn’t sufficient kinetic energy to scrape the spray on insulation off of the structural members.

Are you claiming this is the type of science your paper is based on? Because it misrepresents the actual contents of the NIST report. NIST measured the acceleration required to strip the insulation off of the structural elements. (Look for yourself. The measurement unit is g. Why g? Because the airplane striking a structural element accelerated that element enough to strip off the insulation.

Sure, there’s some science there, but the argument is based on fatally flawed reasoning. Did you even try to think through this argument before you cut and pasted it?
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

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_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

So, Gage (guy behind ae911) repeatedly claims that “They would bring up these multi-ton chunks of this previously molten substance, which turns out to be iron.”

This is a lie. Gage can name no Ground Zero worker who claims this. Nor can Gage show where any formerly molten material was tested to determine its composition. Dave Peraza, the engineer in charge of all Ground Zero cleanup states the following:

"I never saw pools or lakes of molten, or previously molten, steel. Neither in the subgrade levels, nor as material that was loaded onto trucks by the grapplers and cranes."

Anyone wanna place a bet that Gage hasn’t actually read the NIST report?

Is this the guy you really want to throw in with, Mikwut?

- Doc
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_honorentheos
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _honorentheos »

mikwut wrote:If you think the contrary hypothesis is crazy then start on page 8 and tell me what is so nuts about the truthers table?
mikwut

Let's start with its title.

Table 1: The Features of a Controlled Demolition versus Fire-induced Failure.
There are two columns in this table, but neither reflects what is claimed occurred at WTC1 and 2. They aren't attempting to compare the known facts regarding the collapse of the twin towers with the claims of the investigation but instead include two columns reflecting the towers either fell due to a fire-induced collapse alone, or one has to accept they fell due to a controlled demolition event. They don't include the option that the report claims: structural damage caused by a plane followed by high-intensity fire. They are trying to bias the reader into seeing a preference for one of those two columns intended to match the rows of the table.

So, out of the gate one should be skeptical of the table's value. Anyway.

The NIST website faqs covers each row so let's quote them in order.

Row one: Controlled demo results in total collapse, fire does not.
NIST:NIST concluded that the WTC towers collapsed because: (1) the impact of the planes severed and damaged support columns, dislodged fireproofing insulation coating the steel floor trusses and steel columns, and widely dispersed jet fuel over multiple floors; and (2) the subsequent unusually large number of jet-fuel ignited multi-floor fires (which reached temperatures as high as 1,000 degrees Celsius, or 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit) significantly weakened the floors and columns with dislodged fireproofing to the point where floors sagged and pulled inward on the perimeter columns. This led to the inward bowing of the perimeter columns and failure of the south face of WTC 1 and the east face of WTC 2, initiating the collapse of each of the towers.

In other words, what happened at WTC 1 and 2 are not consistent with either column in the table but require a third condition - what happens when a building is hit by a large plane and set on fire with jet fuel.

Row 2: Controlled demo involves sudden collapse, fire includes collapse after many minutes or hours
NIST: The time it took for the collapse to initiate (56 minutes for WTC 2 and 102 minutes for WTC 1) was dictated by (1) the extent of damage caused by the aircraft impact, and (2) the time it took for the fires to reach critical locations and weaken the structure to the point that the towers could not resist the tremendous energy released by the downward movement of the massive top section of the building at and above the fire and impact floors.

NIST estimated the elapsed times for the first exterior panels to strike the ground after the collapse initiated in each of the towers to be approximately 11 seconds for WTC 1 and approximately 9 seconds for WTC 2. These elapsed times were based on: (1) precise timing of the initiation of collapse from video evidence, and (2) ground motion (seismic) signals recorded at Palisades, N.Y., that also were precisely time-calibrated for wave transmission times from lower Manhattan (see NIST NCSTAR 1-5A).
As documented in Section 6.14.4 of NIST NCSTAR 1, these collapse times show that:

"The structure below the level of collapse initiation offered minimal resistance to the falling building mass at and above the impact zone. The potential energy released by the downward movement of the large building mass far exceeded the capacity of the intact structure below to absorb that energy through energy of deformation.
Since the stories below the level of collapse initiation provided little resistance to the tremendous energy released by the falling building mass, the building section above came down essentially in free fall, as seen in videos. As the stories below sequentially failed, the falling mass increased, further increasing the demand on the floors below, which were unable to arrest the moving mass."

In other words, the momentum (which equals mass times velocity) of the 12 to 28 stories (WTC 1 and WTC 2, respectively) falling on the supporting structure below (which was designed to support only the static weight of the floors above and not any dynamic effects due to the downward momentum) so greatly exceeded the strength capacity of the structure below that it (the structure below) was unable to stop or even to slow the falling mass. The downward momentum felt by each successive lower floor was even larger due to the increasing mass.

From video evidence, significant portions of the cores of both buildings (roughly 60 stories of WTC 1 and 40 stories of WTC 2) are known to have stood 15 to 25 seconds after collapse initiation before they, too, began to collapse. Neither the duration of the seismic records nor video evidence (due to obstruction of view caused by debris clouds) are reliable indicators of the total time it took for each building to collapse completely.

Row 3: The collapse lasts a matter of seconds in a controlled demolition while it takes place over a longer duration in a fire.
NIST: See row 2.

Again, the attempt to shoehorn what happened on 9/11 is creating a false sense that one of the two scenarios in the table fits better when the facts don't fit either column because the cause of the collapse isn't accurately represented in the table.

Row 4: In a demolition, the collapse starts at the base while in a fire the collapse initiates around the fire event.
NIST: NIST's findings also do not support the "controlled demolition" theory since there is conclusive evidence that:
- the collapse was initiated in the impact and fire floors of the WTC towers and nowhere else, and;
- the time it took for the collapse to initiate (56 minutes for WTC 2 and 102 minutes for WTC 1) was dictated by (1) the extent of damage caused by the aircraft impact, and (2) the time it took for the fires to reach critical locations and weaken the structure to the point that the towers could not resist the tremendous energy released by the downward movement of the massive top section of the building at and above the fire and impact floors.

Video evidence also showed unambiguously that the collapse progressed from the top to the bottom, and there was no evidence (collected by NIST or by the New York City Police Department, the Port Authority Police Department, or the Fire Department of New York) of any blast or explosions in the region below the impact and fire floors as the top building sections (including and above the 98th floor in WTC 1 and the 82nd floor in WTC 2) began their downward movement upon collapse initiation.

Row 5: Descent in a controlled demolition is symmetrical, asymmetrical in a fire-caused collapse
NIST: "The structure below the level of collapse initiation offered minimal resistance to the falling building mass at and above the impact zone. The potential energy released by the downward movement of the large building mass far exceeded the capacity of the intact structure below to absorb that energy through energy of deformation.

Since the stories below the level of collapse initiation provided little resistance to the tremendous energy released by the falling building mass, the building section above came down essentially in free fall, as seen in videos. As the stories below sequentially failed, the falling mass increased, further increasing the demand on the floors below, which were unable to arrest the moving mass."

Row 6: Free fall speeds in controlled demolition, slowed by lower floors in fire-caused collapses.
NIST: See quotes used in Rows 3 - 6. Again, the issue is what happened is based on a building being damaged by a plane, suffering critical structural damage and internal jet-fueled fires within the damaged sections of the building for a long period of time which led to it's collapse. Neither column in the table uniquely covers that event exclusively. Neither column accurately describes what actually happened which should tell you they aren't the right comparisons. The table is a misdirection that you fell for, mikwut.

Row 7: Smaller explosions are visible outside of the building in controlled demolitions, only happen at the fire location if at all in fire-caused collapses.
NIST: As stated in Section 6.14.4 of NIST NCSTAR 1, the falling mass of the building compressed the air ahead of it—much like the action of a piston—forcing smoke and debris out the windows as the stories below failed sequentially.

These puffs were observed at many locations as the towers collapsed. In all cases, they had the appearance of jets of gas being pushed from the building through windows or between columns on the mechanical floors. Such jets are expected since the air inside the building is compressed as the tower falls and must flow somewhere as the pressure builds. It is significant that similar "puffs" were observed numerous times on the fire floors in both towers prior to their collapses, perhaps due to falling walls or portions of a floor. Puffs from WTC 1 were even observed when WTC 2 was struck by the aircraft. These observations confirm that even minor overpressures were transmitted through the towers and forced smoke and debris from the building.

Row 8: Concrete sometimes gets pulverized in controlled demolitions, not in fire-caused collapses where most of the building is left intact
NIST: See above responses. The table is trying to account for the pulverizing of concrete and debris fines that scattered out from the collapsing towers and affected large areas using two conditions that don't fit. This is another example of the table trying to artificially create an either-or condition and ask the reader to pick one when the claims regarding what happened aren't actually represented in the table.

Row 9: Same as 8, but with steel.

These are bad arguments you're putting forward.
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_Res Ipsa
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Res Ipsa »

The table is a classic example of pseudo science. It completely ignores the impact of the plane’s impact and the important structural features of the building. In fact, it’s not just pseudo science — it’s dishonest pseudo science. Why in the world would you find it persuasive at all mikwut?
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Chap
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Chap »

Res Ipsa wrote:Why in the world would you find it persuasive at all mikwut?


I think some people just find the dull hardness of reality too disempowering.

So instead they have prefer fantasies about having discovered an amazing secret that makes them one of the few who really understand what is going on. It's a good feeling, so long as you can hang on to it.
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_Res Ipsa
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Chap wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:Why in the world would you find it persuasive at all mikwut?


I think some people just find the dull hardness of reality too disempowering.

So instead they have prefer fantasies about having discovered an amazing secret that makes them one of the few who really understand what is going on. It's a good feeling, so long as you can hang on to it.


I think there’s something to that. I wonder if anyone has studied the effect of iconoclastic thoughts on the brain’s pleasure’s centers, similar to the effect of outrage or Facebook likes. “Secret” or “special knowledge” seems to be a lure to human brains. I wonder if it’s something more than the patternicity or intentionality biases.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

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_Gadianton
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Gadianton »

from the wiki article:

James Quintiere, professor of fire protection engineering at the University of Maryland, who does not believe explosives brought down the towers, questioned how the agency came to its conclusions, remarking, "They don't have the expertise on explosives," though he adds that NIST wasted time employing outside experts to consider it


just to make the point that even if NIST is totally off (I'm not saying it is), that doesn't mean we need to think it was explosives. We don't have mile-high towers to run planes into repeatedly in order to make experimental science out of this. planes crashed into a building and the building fell.

We know explosives can make a building fall, therefore, in this near anomalous scenario with planes and 100 story buildings in an uncontrolled event, if we can't explain how everything happened, we assume explosives. Doesn't make sense to me.
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_Markk
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Markk »

mikwut wrote:Hi Markk,

Okay...

So then your position is it was a controlled demolition...masked by the hijacking of four airliners by foriegn national feigning to be terrorists, but were actually working for a Bush/Cheney backed operation to collapse the towers, damage the pentagon, and attack the White House.


Ummmm, no I never said anything like that.

Is it your position a airliner hit the pentagon, or a missile? I have heard this in the past. I will read through your link when I get a chance, maybe it explains this theory also.

Is that fair?


I'm just discussing the towers and science the paper presents respecting their collapse.

My position is that the airliners full of fuel severed main support columns, dumped burning fuel into the core shafts, heating steel supports, and softening them to the point of complete failure due to with gravity load.


Yes the paper seems to refute that by using NIST itself. The fires were never hot enough for your theory to occur.

Your theory demands these, and other, questions answered.

1. what team engineered the controlled demolition. The pentagon? Private engineers? Did Bush just make a phone call to these men and say (using your best Bush impersonation)" Hey, I need a war, I want to blow up the Twin Towers and ram high jacked planes into the White House and the Pentagon. Get on it boys, but don't let anyone find out...if you have any further questions just ask Dick, by the way...see if you can find some dumb foriegn nationals that will fly the planes into the buildings."
2. who performed, and how, the preparation work involved for a sequenced implosion, with the airliners. And where were the charges placed?
3. who recruited the so called terrorists, and why would they give their lives for a goverment operation. Or...were they really terrorists tricked into the operation? If the latter who did this, who set it up?
4. controlled demolition would take 1000's of feet of sequencing wires, from charge to charge to a central command center and control board...where was that and where were the wires ran? Underground? In the subway? overhead? If so was there a clean up crew removing all this evidence, and I have to ask..."who were these guys?"
5. How long did it take Bush, from inception to the end, plan and execute the operation?


We don't refute science by saying well if that science is true then we have to believe something too difficult to imagine. The science is first. If the collapse only could have happened one way then that's what happened.

mikwt


Then what are you saying, it was either by the planes alone, or a conspiracy...?

Is that fair?


HUH...it is a question. Some say a missile hit the pentagon. If you sleep in a pig pen your are going to stink, and if you enter into this conspiracy, your need to own what it preaches.

I'm just discussing the towers and science the paper presents respecting their collapse.


The science? In part, it is comparing concrete reinforced failures, with structural steel failures. I am so scientist by any means, but I know concrete reinforced building are a different beast than structural steel only buildings. And I have been apart of enough science projects with my children to know variables do not lead to good science, and comparing concrete and rebar, in a fire, with raw carbon steel structural members is one huge variable. But I will keep reading your
Yes the paper seems to refute that by using NIST itself. The fires were never hot enough for your theory to occur.


Jet fuel burns at around 1000 degrees plus or minus a few hundred degrees...that is more than enough to weaken steel. Red hot steel is around 900 degrees and bends easily with equal pressures, I do it all the time. Take a fork and heat it on your stove top until red hot, it will bend very easily...that can be objective science.

We don't refute science by saying well if that science is true then we have to believe something too difficult to imagine. The science is first. If the collapse only could have happened one way then that's what happened.


Come on, that is a cop out, if it was a conspiracy, then it demands answers.
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _Markk »

Lemmie wrote:
Markk does not argue that the steel had to melt, but rather that it distorted.

You are arguing that the NIST report is true, but your source is arguing that the NIST report does not account for the fact that with thermite explosions, the temp was high enough to cause molten steel, due to detonated thermite explosions.

The problem is, your source’s ONLY evidence for molten steel, as I mentioned, is pictures and eye witness accounts. Also, there is no evidence for thermite explosions.


I am a carpenter by trade, but I love messing around with steel. I have a welder and oxygen and acetylene tanks. I read online how to make a knife...so I thought I would give it a try. I cut some A-36 carbon steel to the shape I wanted, a large Bowie type shape. Because A-36 steel is soft, I tried to temper (harden) it by heating it, then emerging is water. I did this several times not really knowing what I was doing.

I did it wrong and the "knife" actually shattered (broke in a few pieces).

My point is heat does weird things the the "DNA"of steel.
Don't take life so seriously in that " sooner or later we are just old men in funny clothes" "Tom 'T-Bone' Wolk"
_canpakes
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Re: Self selection in conspiracy theorists

Post by _canpakes »

Just highlighting this comment by Doc, regarding the design of the WTC towers and why their stability may have been compromised a bit after airliners smashed into them ...

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:According to MIT each floor system weighed about 3,200,000 pounds. The jets destroyed support columns, weakened support columns, and fire burning at around 800 degrees for, what, 45 to 60 minutes? In one of the towers you had multiple jacked up floors trying to shift weight of +/- 96,000,000 lbs of weight bearing downward.


"The buildings used high-strength, load-bearing perimeter steel columns which acted as Vierendeel trusses. Although the columns themselves were lightweight, they were spaced closely together, forming a strong, rigid wall structure. There were 59 perimeter columns, narrowly spaced, on each side of the buildings. In all, the perimeter walls of the towers were 210 feet (64 m) on each side, and the corners were beveled. The perimeter columns were designed to provide support for virtually all lateral loads (such as wind loads) and to share the gravity loads with the core columns."


That's a mighty big hole cut through such a vital component of the structure.

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