The New War with Iran

[_Jersey Girl]

And...it's on. Iran attacks back.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/0 ... ops-095815

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

We need separate countries and a full divorce between left and right.

In case anyone thinks our White supremacist cum separatist isn't a piece of garbage traitorous shitbag, well, there it is.

- Doc

[Guest]

[–]Pearberr

[score hidden] 16 hours ago*227

Iran has similar internal politics to our own. They have liberals who want free trade and peace with the world and think religious laws are Stoopid. They have a right wing that says religious laws are needed, and then create fear and anger against Americans to help gloss over the fact that their economy sucks.

In 2015, the liberal factions on both sides won with the signing of the JCPOA, "The Iran Deal." This deal was a watershed moment for Iran's relationship with the world. They gave up all of their medium level material and 98% of their low level uranium. They also ceded critical infrastructure, and agreed to international inspectors. They were probably a few months of focused work away from a bomb (they weren't actively trying to complete because Israel vowed to attack if they came close). After the JCPOA it was at least a year away and probably closer to two.

This solved the existential crisis that has made Europe and Israel so aggressively anti-Iranian. They could no longer say, reasonably threaten to glass Paris.

Echoing Republican sentiment across the Atlantic, the Iranian Royal Guard and right wing hardline politicians said you can't trust the Americans they hate you, they are an unreliable partner. Do not do the deal, we did not get enough. We can negotiate a better deal. But sucks for all of them, they aren't in power, oh no we have peace, reconciliation and open diplomatic channels to begin making progress on other regional disputes such as the blockade of Gaza or ISIL - which we all have been working together to defeat.

About a year ago Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA claiming at various points that Iran wasn't in compliance (journalists, our European allies and Trump's State Department disagree) or that Obama got a bad deal and we could do better. We ratcheted up sanctions on Iran, cut them out of the global banking system and screwed their economy.

And here we get to the moral of the story. This played right into the hands of the hardliners[/b], like Soleimani. I'm sure some very joyous "I told you so's" were yelped out by Conservatives in Iran. They warned those stupid, bleeding heart liberals that America would betray them.

In response, Iran has flexed in a few mostly minor ways to remind the world it can “F” up everybody else's economy too. They temporarily detained a pair of oil tankers. Then in response to Saudi escalation in Yemen they allegedly bombed some oil fields. Lately, they have increased rocket attacks on American military positions in Iraq - their neighbors - where they've always opposed our opposition. This acting out is typical and expected of States under sanctions - our revolution was largely about British trade monopolies after all.

And here is where we reach the killing. They shot rockets at us, we fired missiles back but Trump was watching the news and the protestors at our embassy were still chanting death to America (similar to how Republicans casually talk about glassing the Middle east, I despise this language, but we do it to it's not new nor escalatory, nor a representation of their official foreign policy). So Trump asked the Pentagon for more options.

[b]And he decided to kill their Jim Mattis. Imagine if the mad dog was assassinated. I'd be mad. You'd be mad.

There's a famous quote from a French diplomat Tallyrand that I can't get out of my head. Napolean arrested and executed Louis Antoine de Bourbon on flimsy pretenses, a man who stood in his way, a tyrannical act and a crime. Tallyrand noted in the moment. "This is worse than a crime... This is a mistake." It was tyrannical, but worse, it betrayed his intent to the world, and the blunder showed weakness - and others immediately began plotting against him.

Look. No intelligent Westerner likes or is mourning Soleimani. But assassination of high ranking officials has always been a declaration of war. Trump has shredded American credibility. Iran's internal politics will swing hard right, and if they declare war Israel and Saudi Arabia will be our only allies. And we cannot win a war with Iran. It will be a quagmire at best and an outright embarrassing defeat at worst. Sure we'll kill all the poor people and liberal city dwellers who like us but the IRGC has prepared for this for 40 years. They'll be the best organized terrorist insurgency ever. They'll farm one day and blow us the “F” up tomorrow. We will have to choose between eternal occupation or tucking our tail and running. We will spend another $2T on things that aren't infrastructure, healthcare, education, deficit reduction or tax cuts.

The killing of Soleimani is worse than a crime. It's a mistake.

The very people that need to internalize this post will never read it, nor are they capable of understanding Trump's mistake. It's a goddamn shame.

- Doc

[_DoubtingThomas]

There goes our tax dollars.

[_DoubtingThomas]

What was Solemani doing in Bagdad anyway?

Why are American soldiers still in Iraq?

[_EAllusion]

Dear lord.

[_EAllusion]

What's frightening about this situation is Donald Trump is president. It's really hard to get your head around the unreality that people are turning to Donald Trump - an amoral megalomaniac moron - for direction, but if you do, it should feel deeply unsettling. The upshot here is it is still quite possible to deescalate the situation. The downside is we're relying on Donald Trump to be persuaded to do that. He's got an isolationist streak, but he also has a crippling need to appear tough and strong, so we'll just get to enjoy that coin flip of death and hope it works out.

Imagine going back in time to 1989, encountering a foreign policy crisis, and being told that we'll ask just Donald J. Trump what he wants to do and decide to go with what he says. Seems insane, no? That's what's actually happening now.

[_EAllusion]

We need separate countries and a full divorce between left and right.

In case anyone thinks our White supremacist cum separatist isn't a piece of garbage traitorous ____, well, there it is.

- Doc

Ajax is a loyal person. It's who he is. But he also desperately wants those who oppose his white supremacist ideas impotent or dead. He thinks its wrong to kill fellow Americans, though. Quite the conundrum. If, on the other hand, you weren't a fellow American and tensions escalate, well, you laying in a pool of your own blood is just foreign policy.

[_EAllusion]

Donald Trump does love to bumble into himself and those around him into a disaster, turn tail while lying his ass off about winning, then take credit for averting a disaster of his own making. We've seen that script several times during his presidency. I guess it's fingers crossed that we're seeing it again.

[_huckelberry]

Donald Trump does love to bumble into himself and those around him into a disaster, turn tail while lying his ass off about winning, then take credit for averting a disaster of his own making. We've seen that script several times during his presidency. I guess it's fingers crossed that we're seeing it again.

I hope you have seen the line of future events. It is a rut that hopefully will guide the course of stumbling events.