The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[_Dr. Shades]

Apparently, that’s due to a change from reporting confirmed cases to clinically diagnosed cases.

What’s the difference between a confirmed case and a clinically diagnosed case?

[_Doctor Steuss]

Just trying to understand the reasoning behind posting that number - apparently you are struggling as well.

I would think that the reason for posting the number of virus cases in a thread about the spread of the virus would be fairly self-evident(?)

[Guest]

What’s the difference between a confirmed case and a clinically diagnosed case?

Previously a cases were only counted as confirmed if it was identified by a testing kit they use for the disease (think how you can get a swab for Strep or the Flu), now they are also including anyone that displays all of the symptoms of COVID-19, regardless of testing, in the reported cases.

A short summary

China's Hubei province expanded its criteria for identifying new coronavirus infections on Thursday, causing a dramatic spike in reported cases at the epicenter of the disease, as Beijing moved to purge provincial party officials amid criticism of their handling of the epidemic.

Hubei, where the majority of the world's infections have been concentrated, added a new category of "clinical cases" to its reporting. Now, patients will be included who exhibit all the symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus — including fever, cough and shortness of breath — but have either not been tested or tested negative for the virus itself.

The change, likely a response to the scarcity of test kits and questions about their reliability, caused a ninefold increase in new reported cases in the province.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out longer term. Although only Hubei has expanded reporting totals this way, my understanding is that the Chinese government has asked all provinces to report on these clinical cases as well. We may see another significant spike as those numbers are released.

edited for clarity

[_Res Ipsa]

Good information, Xeno. Just a little nitpick. I don't think Hubei is reporting "clinical cases" as "confirmed cases." They are reporting "clinical cases" instead of "confirmed cases."

I think another thing to keep in mind is that the reliability of test kits is always an issue when we are dealing with a new virus. The CDC had a conference call with the press yesterday. Right now, all tests in the U.S. are being processed at the CDC. The CDC sent test kits to the states to the states to do the confirmations. But many of those kits failed the verification tests because one of the reagents wasn't acting like it was supposed to. So, the CDC had to replace the reagent and send out new kits. According to the CDC, this kind of problem is not unusual when they have to make up new test kits for a new virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020 ... cript.html

All this is to say that we have significant known unknowns.

[_Xenophon]

Good information, Xeno. Just a little nitpick. I don't think Hubei is reporting "clinical cases" as "confirmed cases." They are reporting "clinical cases" instead of "confirmed cases."

Good clarification. Probably the better way to phrase it is that the total reported cases now includes both those confirmed by test and those clinically diagnosed.

[_Res Ipsa]

Good information, Xeno. Just a little nitpick. I don't think Hubei is reporting "clinical cases" as "confirmed cases." They are reporting "clinical cases" instead of "confirmed cases."

Good clarification. Probably the better way to phrase it is that the total reported cases now includes both those confirmed by test and those clinically diagnosed.

Good point.

[_Res Ipsa]

In case anyone is curious, this is the effect of the change in reporting:





I think it's understandably why our penguin friend would post the new total. Luckily, it doesn't appear the virus has spread to Antarctica. Or to penguins.

[_moksha]

I imagine Beijing is pissed that local officials were so concerned with denying the problem, that they allowed this contagion to spread.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

DoD internal discussion on the pandemic. Dude is freaking out:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=you ... HA5Nfg5sCI

“Several orders of magnitude greater than reported”, China has closed its 2600 mile border with Russia, virus is possibly aerosolized, and China has been lying about every aspect of this thing from the beginning.

Welp. It’s hair fire, no doubt.

- Doc

[_Res Ipsa]

DoD internal discussion on the pandemic. Dude is freaking out:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=you ... HA5Nfg5sCI

“Several orders of magnitude greater than reported”, China has closed its 2600 mile border with Russia, virus is possibly aerosolized, and China has been lying about every aspect of this thing from the beginning.

Welp. It’s hair fire, no doubt.

- Doc

Tom Cotton is not a reliable source. He’s trying to make political hay out of the epidemic. It is not a bio weapon. The evidence supporting the early speculation that people are contagious before they show symptoms turned out to be faulty. The evidence from other countries is not consistent with high rates of transmission.

Because it’s Cotton, I think this has more to do with sticking it to China and shifting focus away from Trump and Barr.

Yeah. Hair Fire.