Jersey Girl wrote:Apparently the WHO is preparing for a widespread outbreak in the US. I'm booking a flight in Spring. If I come back dead, I'll let you guys know.
That story is not about the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ramping up to engage with an oncoming pandemic, but is about being prepared for the worst case scenario if things go bad.
There were 19 confirmed cases as of last Friday, and they are tracking/monitoring 81 people as having had contact that haven't been confirmed as negative for contracting the virus.
And yes, I understand the preparation. That's why I said preparing. :-) The spread of communicable diseases, epidemics, pandemics were part of my course work.
I'll let ya know if I die, okay?
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
Jersey Girl wrote:Apparently the WHO is preparing for a widespread outbreak in the US. I'm booking a flight in Spring. If I come back dead, I'll let you guys know.
That story is not about the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ramping up to engage with an oncoming pandemic, but is about being prepared for the worst case scenario if things go bad.
There were 19 confirmed cases as of last Friday, and they are tracking/monitoring 81 people as having had contact that haven't been confirmed as negative for contracting the virus.
Yup. Right now they’re just preparing in the US so we don’t get overwhelmed in case of an outbreak. Singapore and Japan are more concerning.
“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”
― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
subgenius wrote:Just trying to understand the reasoning behind posting that number - apparently you are struggling as well.
I think that you’re struggling with both the post itself, and the fact that other folks aren't struggling with that post. : D
As much water as you seem to want to carry...we still have no anwer to my question. Which still leaves absent the reason the number was posted to begin with. But im sure it makes sense to you....relatively speaking of course.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
canpakes wrote:I think that you’re struggling with both the post itself, and the fact that other folks aren't struggling with that post. : D
As much water as you seem to want to carry...we still have no anwer to my question. Which still leaves absent the reason the number was posted to begin with. But im sure it makes sense to you....relatively speaking of course.
You must also spend a lot of time getting your britches bunched up at folks who track storms, or tabulate snowfall, or compare sports stats, or watch birds, or collect things, or who celebrate increases in baptisms during twice-yearly conferences.
You should lighten up a bit. At your age, your bitter attitude is just going to hasten that heart attack.
Most cases are mild and all of the US patients who contracted the virus are recovering.
"Religion is about providing human community in the guise of solving problems that don’t exist or failing to solve problems that do and seeking to reconcile these contradictions and conceal the failures in bogus explanations otherwise known as theology." - Kishkumen
I’m concerned that the Washington Post article did a poor job of explaining the actual risks posed by a coronavirus outbreak in the US. Given the level of distrust in government institutions among a significant portion of our population, I’m expecting to hear claims that the CDC is exaggerating the risk to distract attention from Trump or in response to Trump’s budget, which includes eliminating some CDC programs. Or that the deep state is colluding with the WHO to assist in its plot to control the world.
Two things about that 2% estimate mortality rate. First, what does it represent? It originated with estimate from China that was obtained by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases. While that is the correct formula for determining the fatality rate at the end of an epidemic, it is not appropriate during an epidemic because it assumes that no currently sick people will die.
The WHO has stayed with that estimate in part based on experience and in part on the knowledge that not all cases were being tested, so many non-fatal cases were not being included in the reported totals. It was proven correct when China released the totals for clinical diagnoses, including cases diagnosed in the past.
I just computed deaths/total cases, and that figure has dropped to 1.2%
But there’s better method of tracking death rates during an epidemic: deaths/(deaths + recoveries). Today, that stands at about 13%. That’s over double the estimated mortality rate for the Spanish flu pandemic.
But, just like the 1.2% figure, there is a key assumption: that the unresolved cases will look like the resolve cases. And there are good reasons to believe they won’t. First, there early resolve cases are from Wuhan, where it’s clear that the healthcare system was completely overwhelmed. That hasn’t happened in other countries or even in other provinces in China. So, lesson number 1: avoid overwhelming the local healthcare systems.
Second, the death rate among the population is not uniform. It is much higher for people over 60 and those with certain other health conditions. The figures from Wuhan represent a general, widespread outbreak that exposes the vulnerable population (overwhelmed hospitals filled with already sick people). If other locations are able to keep the virus out of the vulnerable population, then the death rates in those locations will be much lower. Lesson 2: contain the spread to protect vulnerable populations.
So far, it looks like other countries, including the US, have been successful at preventing outbreaks that overwhelm local healthcare systems and expose the vulnerable population. But that depends in large part on listening to and following the recommendations of the WHO, CDC, a and local health departments.
In connection with the first US case, one exposed person, against the requests of the local health department, flew on a commercial flight to Wisconsin. Has she contracted the disease, officials in Wisconsin would now be scrambling to contact a plane load of people, monitoring their health, trying to locate persons they could have exposed, etc. to prevent an outbreak. And that’s just one person disregarding advice.
So, if the professionals who spend their careers figuring out how to respond to and contain disease outbreaks are permitted to do their jobs, and people pay attention to and follow their recommendations, the final fatality rate will be much more like 1% than 13%. Even then, we should keep in mind that a 1% mortality rate is 100 times the mortality rate for seasonal flu. Overwhelming small, rural hospitals happens even with seasonal flu, and we have areas of the US with serious seasonal flu outbreaks right now.
TL/DR: The biggest risk is people concluding that there is no real risk.
“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”
― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
My anecdotal story about corona-virus: I work as a tour guide in San Francisco. The earbuds we use (so people can hear commentary) are manufactured in China.
The factory has shut down. No more earbuds.
Now the loss of earbud business is not going to upset the balance of trade, but I wonder how many other suppliers have shut down in China? And when people start using alternative suppliers outside of China, how much damage will be done to the Chinese economy?
"The great problem of any civilization is how to rejuvenate itself without rebarbarization." - Will Durant "We've kept more promises than we've even made" - Donald Trump "Of what meaning is the world without mind? The question cannot exist." - Edwin Land
moksha wrote:The US is now tied with Thailand in the number of confirmed cases.
This needs to be over by mid-April. Handle it!
Where are you flying to?
“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”
― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951