Icarus wrote:2. Uncertainty about the U.S. 2020 presidential election outcome is also starting to drive markets, strategists and analysts argue. A number of them think that if Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic presidential nomination, and possibly even the presidency, stocks could take a hit as he is perceived by some as an antibusiness candidate. “The risk to US stocks is pretty significant if Bernie gets the nomination,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst with OANDA.
Sure, Ed.
Unless anyone seriously believes that Sanders will (1) be the Democratic Party nominee, and will then (2) go on to beat Trump - I’d guess that this ‘perception’ is little more than a scare/blame tactic being repeated by folks in the bag for Trump, given that Trump slurred his way through this same excuse for the market’s recent troubles during his rambling press conference yesterday about the coronavirus situation.
Just about no one in the business world sees this as having any real odds of happening, and even if so, they certainly wouldn’t be pricing that into their investments today.
As if, “Forget about possible gains of 20% over the next 8 months! Bernie Sanders won a couple of primaries, SELL EVERYTHING NOWWW!!” is going to be a viable investment strategy for anyone. ; )
Holy crap. I thought things had turned around when it was only down 200 points around lunch, but then it closes more than 1,100 points down. Did they announce another Corona outbreak or something?
"One of the hardest things for me to accept is the fact that Kevin Graham has blonde hair, blue eyes and an English last name. This ugly truth blows any arguments one might have for actual white supremacism out of the water. He's truly a disgrace." - Ajax
Fox News just recently attributed the market crash to Bernie Sanders. Sometimes I think they are so stupidly transparent that it cannot possibly work on its core audience, but it always does.
EAllusion wrote:Fox News just recently attributed the market crash to Bernie Sanders. Sometimes I think they are so stupidly transparent that it cannot possibly work on its core audience, but it always does.
I guess people will stop doing business here if the tax rate is increased on the 1%? I do wonder what kinds of actions billionaires can take, outside of the ones they’re taking now to avoid paying taxes, that could punish Americans for increasing tax rates and closing loopholes. The former is so wealthy that they’re essentially stateless so it feels like on the one hand they can take advantage of our collectivist build outs in infrastructure, health, and education, but avoid contributing other than with the direct capital they invest in something that affects their bottom lines.
- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.
Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
EAllusion wrote:Fox News just recently attributed the market crash to Bernie Sanders. Sometimes I think they are so stupidly transparent that it cannot possibly work on its core audience, but it always does.
I guess people will stop doing business here if the tax rate is increased on the 1%? I do wonder what kinds of actions billionaires can take, outside of the ones they’re taking now to avoid paying taxes, that could punish Americans for increasing tax rates and closing loopholes. The former is so wealthy that they’re essentially stateless so it feels like on the one hand they can take advantage of our collectivist build outs in infrastructure, health, and education, but avoid contributing other than with the direct capital they invest in something that affects their bottom lines.
- Doc
If we could just get them all into public office and elect them, they could help the rest of us, something all of them really want to do badly......
Dr CamNC4Me
"Dr. Peterson and his Callithumpian cabal of BYU idiots have been marginalized by their own inevitable irrelevancy defending a fraud."
EAllusion wrote:Fox News just recently attributed the market crash to Bernie Sanders. Sometimes I think they are so stupidly transparent that it cannot possibly work on its core audience, but it always does.
I guess people will stop doing business here if the tax rate is increased on the 1%? I do wonder what kinds of actions billionaires can take, outside of the ones they’re taking now to avoid paying taxes, that could punish Americans for increasing tax rates and closing loopholes. The former is so wealthy that they’re essentially stateless so it feels like on the one hand they can take advantage of our collectivist build outs in infrastructure, health, and education, but avoid contributing other than with the direct capital they invest in something that affects their bottom lines.
- Doc
This doesn't really have anything to do with my post, but the existence of wealthy people in New York or California disproves a simple inverse correlation between tax rates on the wealthy in an area and willingness to live and do business in that area. That said, some means of taxing and some rates of taxing certainly seem more likely to produce capital flight and tax evasion than others. Versions of Warren's wealth tax implemented in Europe saw significant problems with capital flight and were abandoned quickly by most countries that adopted them. I'm not going to pretend I have the secret sauce here, but there clearly is a balancing act with some policies being more effective than others.
It's also very possible that the election of Sanders might also produce some capital strike behavior where businesses cool investments to "ride out" his Presidency. That would reduce market performance. Because American news culture strongly associates stock index health with economic health, that could be a negative for him.
Please enlighten me. They give tax cuts to the wealthy. They use it to buy more shares Shares have now plummeted. So what does that me the tax cuts are worth little now???
Hilary Clinton " I won the places that represent two-thirds of America's GDP.I won in places are optimistic diverse, dynamic, moving forward"
The market is in freefall because we are on the cusp of a Pandemic, and no amount of blue-sky smoke-blowing by the President and Vice-President is going to hide reality from people who make their livelihood prognosticating the future. if the Coronavirus were to be stopped TODAY, the financial repercussions will linger at least a year.
Even if the virus miraculously petered out in the warm weather (as our President fantasizes) the financial shock waves from supply chain disruptions will have serious consequences upon the world economy.
The stock market is based in large part upon forecasting the short and medium term health of the global economy. If there are not enough people going to work every day, if commercial, technical and scientific conferences are cancelled, if people are not traveling for fear of infection, the wheels of commerce and information turn more slowly, and no amount of Happy Faces from Pence and company is going to convince investors that reality is not happening. The obsession with controlling the message while continually proving factually incorrect data might hoodwink the guy in the MAGA hat, but the guy who does due diligence on his money knows what a monster hit the Coronavirus could be on the world economy.
In Japan today, it was announced that throughout the country all schools are closed, effective tomorrow. Think about that for a moment. With less than 24 hours notice, an industrialized country of 126 million people who are dependent upon an educational system to provide child care wakes up tomorrow having to figure out what to do: go to work, or take care of your children. How many hours of work will be lost the week due to that one decision?
It's a global economy, and it's also a globally interdependent economy.
"The great problem of any civilization is how to rejuvenate itself without rebarbarization." - Will Durant "We've kept more promises than we've even made" - Donald Trump "Of what meaning is the world without mind? The question cannot exist." - Edwin Land
Dow industrials in 2020 will hit 32,000, predicts Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro
That's going to be tricky over the next ten months. I do wonder what strategy Trump will attempt to employ, though. I'm nervous he'll push the Fed to lend money at negative interest rates.
- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.
Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
