The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[Guest]

In 1918, the great flu pandemic killed between 20 and 100 million people. Now the mortality rate of this flu seems to be MUCH lower than the 1918 flu. There are a lot of things you can do to minimize your exposure, and even with your pregnancy and hypertension I would bet that your prognosis would be very good, as long as you were proactive early on.

In 1918, my grandmother was pregnant with my father, living north of you in Evanston, and my grandfather was fighting in France the Great War (before we knew enough to number them). I've often thought about my grandmother, and what an incredibly stressful time that must have been.

I sympathize with the additional worry that pregnancy and hypertension would bring to your situation. But just know that even in a pandemic most people don't get the flu, and if this turns into a pandemic, with early detection your chances of recovery are excellent.

Ms. Jack, the good news in The WHO Report is that the investigators found no elevated risk associated with pregnancy itself. You’re right that diabetes and hypertension are associated with elevated risk, but I’m not sure those reported numbers are age adjusted. You might want to ask your OB to review the recent literature and discuss precautions.

Thank you both for the reassurance. The good news is, GTT results came back good, so I shouldn't have to worry about GD anymore unless I develop symptoms.

I'm also a bit worried that if coronavirus patients begin overwhelming our health care infrastructure, good labor and delivery care won't be available when I deliver in 3 months. But there isn't really anything I can do about it except watch and wait. I will discuss with my doctor next Friday, but I'll be surprised if she has information for me that isn't available on the Internet.

With the "community spread" cases being announced in Washington state now, I'll be very surprised if we don't have a "community spread" case here in Chicago within a week. Italy went from 3 cases to over 1000 in just two weeks.

[_Jersey Girl]

The Oklahoma City physician said you should be taking another pill as well, Zinc.

He recommends 25 to 50 milligrams each day for those over 100 pounds.

The pills should be taken with food to avoid an upset stomach.

Kids should be taking 5 to 10 milligrams according to Williams.

“We want to have a lot of zinc in our systems because zinc directly inhibits the replication of the virus, so even if it gets into the cell it can’t keep reproducing and it’s relatively harmless,” said Williams.

https://www.news9.com/story/41828964/ok ... f121bB7p9Y

[_Chap]

The Oklahoma City physician said you should be taking another pill as well, Zinc.

He recommends 25 to 50 milligrams each day for those over 100 pounds.

The pills should be taken with food to avoid an upset stomach.

Kids should be taking 5 to 10 milligrams according to Williams.

“We want to have a lot of zinc in our systems because zinc directly inhibits the replication of the virus, so even if it gets into the cell it can’t keep reproducing and it’s relatively harmless,” said Williams.

https://www.news9.com/story/41828964/ok ... f121bB7p9Y

In times of stress, I am not sure that it is always a good idea to follow every precaution that somebody quoted on the internet suggests. I hope that this particular physician was not accurately quoted as saying:

" ... zinc directly inhibits the replication of the virus, so even if it gets into the cell it can’t keep reproducing and it’s relatively harmless".

I can't see the original article because of regional restrictions, but as you have quoted it "the virus" is likely to be understood as "the coronavirus". I take leave to doubt that anybody has yet demonstrated to acceptable scientific standards that zinc has a specific action on coronavirus replication at cellular level.

Here is a more sober discussion, published in a serious peer-reviewed journal, of the possible antiviral action of zinc in connection with more well-studied viruses:

Zinc Chelation Specifically Inhibits Early Stages of Dengue Virus Replication by Activation of NF-κB and Induction of Antiviral Response in Epithelial Cells

Here is the last sentence of the discussion:

We speculate that in the case of acute viral infections, strategies to transiently block zinc redistribution during viremic stages may inhibit viruses that depend on cellular zinc pools for replication. This would provide a window for the immune system to gain an upper hand and control viral infection.

Unlike the quote above, I don't think that will have people rushing out to clear the 'zinc' shelves of their favourite source of over-priced 'diet supplements'.

[_moksha]

These latest outbreaks may seriously affect Jersey Girl's plans for travel to Iran, Italy, and South Korea. I can't see any outbreak warnings for North Dakota or North Korea.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Tl:dr - Possible insider knew the scope of this thing back in January and made some eerily accurate predictions.

What dat mean doe?

I dunno. The CDC recommends you take a hot shower once you get it. So. You know. Thank god for that and water heaters.

- Doc

[_Res Ipsa]

Doc, this is just as bad as spreading Q-anon conspiracy theories. An anonymous stock broker with “friends”? C’mon. The WHO has modeling teams that model all kinds of scenarios. It sounds like this guy took some third or fourth hand information about worst cases and spun it into a conspiracy theory.

Look, I live in what is likely ground zero for Covid-19 in the US. It’s pretty likely that it’s been circulating here for six weeks. We’re just reaching the point where it’s penetrated into the vulnerable population. The CDC has flown a team out today to investigate an assisted living facility with two presumptive cases and a bunch of folks showing symptoms.

This is what community spread looks like. It’s what the WHO has been openly discussing for weeks. The purpose of containment is to try and slow the spread to delay and lower the peak of the epidemic so that it won’t overwhelm our health care facilities.

The real facts are scary enough, especially when the growth and death curves start to climb. People get panicked, and panicked people are stupid people. CT BS causes people to lose confidence in their state and local health departments, and then they do stupid things that make things worse.

Lots of morons are going to spread stupid CT about Covid-19 over the coming weeks and months. Please don’t be one of those guys.

[_Res Ipsa]

Fun fact: the end of the SARS-CoV-2 genome is a primal scream:

aaaaaaaasa aaaaaaaasa aaaaaaaaaa aaa

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Lots of moms are going to spread stupid CT about Covid-19 over the coming weeks and months. Please don’t be one of those guys.

TOO LATE.



You’ll get my hand sanitizer over my dead, coronavirus-free body.



- Doc

[_Jersey Girl]

Eh, I don't know what stupid CT means. Last night before I got offline I saw something on my Facebook feed locally and I almost started a thread "Novel Coronavirus Quackery" on account of it. I'll copy the text only since I can't post the image.

SPECIAL: $10/family 4-pack.

Given the shortage of flu masks, I made masks for my family in the event this coronavirus makes its way to our area. These masks are washable/reusable and have an opening to insert a replaceable air filter. The design was recommended by a Taiwanese Doctor and consists of adding a non-woven layer (such as a tissue) to act as an air filter and optimize protection against germs. At a minimum, it will protect you from touching your nose and mouth if living in an infected area or filtering germs from someone who sneezes or vomits near you.

Available fabric options are shown in the pics. If you’re interested in purchasing these for you and your family, let me know! I live in the [location removed] area.

What the photos show is what I would describe as a machine sewn fabric mask with something like a coffee filter slipped inside to serve as a replaceable filter.

I mean, like what??

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

All I know is that the Chinese government was using a quadratic formula for early reporting this month, which indicates it wasn't telling the truth about the number of deaths.



- Doc