The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Here’s a really helpful AMA from Reddit where a team of medical experts dealing with the CV answers a series of questions posed to them:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/co ... following/

I recommend checking it out because it can put you at ease regarding, well, all sorts of aspects regarding the virus, its spread, and its effects.

- Doc

[Guest]

Then you should be informing yourself rather than posting misleading speculation about the accuracy of China’s reporting.

It wasn't speculation. Moksha said China reported that all deaths have been halted. Are you now saying that's accurate after saying it isn't true? I was only half serious with the remark about executing journalists but I only said it was more likely the case than all deaths coming to a halt. You seem to be highly offended by the notion that a dictatorship known for draconian measures against its citizens would be anything less than forthcoming about an issue that could potentially make them look bad.

C.D.C. and W.H.O. Offers to Help China Have Been Ignored for Weeks

Then there was this...

When discussion of the outbreak began to appear online in late December, the Wuhan government moved quickly to suppress the news. Wuhan Public Security went so far as to investigate and detain eight doctors who posted on social media about the virus. Accused of spreading “illegal and false” information, the eight were made to sign a Jan. 3 letter saying that they had “severely disrupted social order.” State media followed this up with reminders from the police that it would pursue anyone else who spread false rumors.

One of the eight — 34-year-old Dr. Li Wenliang — contracted the virus shortly thereafter, was hospitalized, and died on Feb. 7. The subsequent reaction shows the challenges of this control tactic. A selfie of Li lying sick in his hospital bed went viral, stirring widespread outrage in China. “To get an idea of the enormous scale of said outpouring of grief and anger, Dr. Li’s death apparently generated 800 million(!) comments on Weibo by midnight,” wrote David Paulk of the independent news outlet Sixth Tone.

'Hero who told the truth': Chinese rage over coronavirus death of whistleblower doctor

[_moksha]

It wasn't speculation. Moksha said China reported that all deaths have been halted.

I may have used hyperbole to make a point. The number of cases reported and the number of deaths has certainly leveled off. Now is that due to the Chinese producing antibodies to the virus or pressures on going easy on reporting due to market slowdowns? The figure of only 8 deaths in Beijing (a city of tremendous air pollution) from this respiratory infection might be due to a remarkable combination of ginseng and tiger penis mixture, or some other reason.

[_Chap]

At times like the present, statistics produced by the Chinese government are only trustworthy when either:

(a) The true data are as the government would like them to be, or preferably better.

(b) The government feels that the political price of falsifying data in terms of loss of public trust is not worth paying.

Chap, your speculation is no better. It certainly is worse than the information gathered by the WHO team that spent time on the ground there.

As someone who has quite a bit of experience of the country in question, I can only say ...

[If you prefer, just say I am making this up and I shan't complain.]

... a time like this, a team of WHO people (or any other people for that matter) visiting China see and hear what the Chinese government want them to see, no more, no less. Oh, they could see for themselves whether the weather was rainy or sunny, or how many patients were in the ward they were taken to visit, and so on. And they could talk with medical and other professionals who have to continue living in the country long after the WHO people have left, and so on. But that's it. The Chinese government has powers over its people that amount to being able to stop any semblance of normal life at will. And they use them ruthlessly whenever they feel it will help them retain the unchallenged power and privilege to which they feel entitled.

[_Res Ipsa]

At times like the present, statistics produced by the Chinese government are only trustworthy when either:

(a) The true data are as the government would like them to be, or preferably better.

(b) The government feels that the political price of falsifying data in terms of loss of public trust is not worth paying.

Chap, your speculation is no better. It certainly is worse than the information gathered by the WHO team that spent time on the ground there.

As someone who has quite a bit of experience of the country in question, I can only say ...

[If you prefer, just say I am making this up and I shan't complain.]

... a time like this, a team of WHO people (or any other people for that matter) visiting China see and hear what the Chinese government want them to see, no more, no less. Oh, they could see for themselves whether the weather was rainy or sunny, or how many patients were in the ward they were taken to visit, and so on. And they could talk with medical and other professionals who have to continue living in the country long after the WHO people have left, and so on. But that's it. The Chinese government has powers over its people that amount to being able to stop any semblance of normal life at will. And they use them ruthlessly whenever they feel it will help them retain the unchallenged power and privilege to which they feel entitled.

I have no reason to doubt your level of expertise, Chap. And what you describe is possible. But is there any evidence that, say, the experience in Hubei is repeating itself across China and zero information is leaking out about it? Is there any evidence that the rate of infection and deaths are actually increasing? Do you have any evidence that that their scientists are just lying in their published papers or in their conversations with the CDC. Should we just toss all data from China in the trash, assuming it’s all lies and give up what ever before we can gain from their experience because, you know, China?

[_Res Ipsa]

Moksha said China is reporting that all deaths have been halted.

I threw shade on that premise because I know China is just as much concerned about its image as it is anything else.

No, you accepted what Moksha posted at face value and then threw shade on China.

You then call my post nonsense while at the same time agreeing with my premise that people are still dying in China.

No, I corrected Moksha's claim and called your shade throwing BS.

Sorry if my post triggered a nerve in you. My wife and I both are high risk. I've had lingering bronchitis going on three years and she is going through chemo.

The bold part is the passive aggressive BS you resort to every time someone disagrees with you. Describing my reaction as "triggered" is juvenile.

I'm high risk, too. I'm in the county with the first reported U.S. case and I can throw a rock from my house into the county with all of the deaths. And of the other three people in my household, one goes to a local college, one is in high school, and one is a para educator in a middle school. So,instead of posting misleading death rate estimates and thowing shade on China, I'm watching press conferences from two counties, checking daily my local and state health department sites, and listening to the daily WHO news conferences and reading their daily situation reports in an effort to make smart decisions and not overreact. Where's the closest case to you? Do you have plans for when the first confirmed cases start popping up around you? I'm sorry your wife has another round of chemo, and I hope she's going to beat this thing. I'm guessing you've already taken the necessary steps to protect her, as she's vulnerable to just about any bug. I hope this thing skips your local area completely.

[_Res Ipsa]

<snip>

You seem to be highly offended by the notion that a dictatorship known for draconian measures against its citizens would be anythingless than forthcoming about an issue that could potentially make them look bad.

Your mind reading abilities have sucked for as long as I've been interacting with you on this board. It's your digital fingerprint. I don't call BS on your BS because I'm offended by it. I'm simply giving it an accurate label.

C.D.C. and W.H.O. Offers to Help China Have Been Ignored for Weeks

Then there was this...

When discussion of the outbreak began to appear online in late December, the Wuhan government moved quickly to suppress the news. Wuhan Public Security went so far as to investigate and detain eight doctors who posted on social media about the virus. Accused of spreading “illegal and false” information, the eight were made to sign a Jan. 3 letter saying that they had “severely disrupted social order.” State media followed this up with reminders from the police that it would pursue anyone else who spread false rumors.

One of the eight — 34-year-old Dr. Li Wenliang — contracted the virus shortly thereafter, was hospitalized, and died on Feb. 7. The subsequent reaction shows the challenges of this control tactic. A selfie of Li lying sick in his hospital bed went viral, stirring widespread outrage in China. “To get an idea of the enormous scale of said outpouring of grief and anger, Dr. Li’s death apparently generated 800 million(!) comments on Weibo by midnight,” wrote David Paulk of the independent news outlet Sixth Tone.

'Hero who told the truth': Chinese rage over coronavirus death of whistleblower doctor

Questions:

1. Did a WHO team go to China?
2. Did they write a report?
3. Have you read it?

The infectious disease specialists at WHO deal with national governments all over the world. They just finally (still fingers crossed) beat back Ebola in DRC. They've got lots of experience doing their thing, and they're pretty good at it. I don't think they're wide-eyed, naïve children who automatically believe everything a Chinese official tells them. They waited several days to compile a report, which indicates to me they at least tried to apply appropriate levels of skepticism to what they were shown and told. And they are confident that the declining morbidity and mortality rates reported for COVID-19 in China reflect what's actually happening. They applied a sliding scale of forced isolation and quarantine ranging from draconian as hell in Wuban to much more moderate in the outer provinces. Through the measures, they got ahead of the epidemic and slowed it way down. The fact that there are still new cases and new deaths reported every day means they haven't contained it in Hubei. But with any luck, they have contained it in the surrounding provinces and may do so in Hubei. Personally, I'm skeptical because the government basically shut down the economy in Hubei and some surrounding areas for a month. They're gradually trying to get businesses running again, and that may result in increasing rates of spread. But that's okay, as long as the health system isn't overrun again.

None of what you quote in your post has any value in helping understand the accuracy of the information that WHO obtained from China or the recent statistics being reported. Neither does it advance our understanding of the disease and the measures we can take that would be effective in keeping Seattle or other U.S. location from becoming Wuhan.

[_Res Ipsa]

It wasn't speculation. Moksha said China reported that all deaths have been halted.

I may have used hyperbole to make a point. The number of cases reported and the number of deaths has certainly leveled off. Now is that due to the Chinese producing antibodies to the virus or pressures on going easy on reporting due to market slowdowns? The figure of only 8 deaths in Beijing (a city of tremendous air pollution) from this respiratory infection might be due to a remarkable combination of ginseng and tiger penis mixture, or some other reason.

Neither, Moksha. Lots of people way smarter than me are working long hours to figure out what the body's immune response is to COVID-19. Once we develop a reliable serological test (a test for antibodies to COVID-19) then everyone can much more easily (and cheaply) test to see who has been infected in the past, not just who is infected today.

The declining rates of infection and death are the result of extreme forms of what state and local health departments will do here: social distancing, isolation of infected persons and contacts, and quarantine. Another example is Singapore. Here's an article about Singapore from mid-February, when it had the highest total of cases other than China. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ina-2020-2 Today, six other countries have reported more cases, and the US will pass Singapore in the next day or two. Two new cases today and no deaths at all.

Beijing has a low death count because the government got ahead of the spread of cases out of Wuhan. Italy has reported over 3000 cases, but I believe it just reported its first case south of Rome. There have been over 100 deaths, none of them in Rome. The original outbreak was in northern Italy. Had they taken more aggressive containment measures, they might have slowed the spread or even contained it there. But no Western Democracy is going to take the extreme measures taken in China.

[_Icarus]

Welp, that didn't take long. Corona is within my county.

https://www.cbs46.com/news/coronavirus- ... 8cdda.html

[_Res Ipsa]

Welp, that didn't take long. Corona is within my county.

https://www.cbs46.com/news/coronavirus- ... 8cdda.html

Damn, sorry about that. Do you have anyone who can help you minimize trips away from the house? (My phone kept wanting to type “Tripps,” which is totally not an omen.)