The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Icarus wrote:Why isn't this getting more attention?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/0 ... ure-123166

When the pandemic began in January the World Health Organization began providing tens of thousands of test kits to more than 60 countries but the USA inexplicably declined their offer. Why? To this day no explanation has been provided by the administration. It seems as though someone saw an opportunity to profit off of this and so why accept free test kits from the WHO when you cane use this opportunity to funnel money to your favorite pharmaceutical sponsor so they can produce their own kits. I mean, who cares if there is a delay in testing during the most crucial early stages of a pandemic, right?


Because there was nothing suspicious or unusual about one of the wealthiest countries in the world producing its own test kits instead of mooching off the WHO, which supports dozens of poor countries that lack the expertise and infrastructure that we have. Having the CDC produce the initial test kits and ship them to the states is SOP. There were significant mistakes that should be investigated and learned from. But this was not one of them. It’s hard enough to get reliable information without folks slinging around CT.

ETA: This article from Fact Check gives a decent account of what occurred. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-f ... s-testing/
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_Icarus
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Icarus »

Res Ipsa wrote:Because there was nothing suspicious or unusual about one of the wealthiest countries in the world producing its own test kits instead of mooching off the WHO, which supports dozens of poor countries that lack the expertise and infrastructure that we have.

Are you kidding me? I guess the joke is on us then as all these other countries managed to address the problem with haste.

Res Ipsa wrote:Having the CDC produce the initial test kits and ship them to the states is SOP.

And yet they were ill prepared to do so, and with the W.H.O already equipped with the necessary testing we should have accepted it for the sake of curbing a pandemic as much as possible. National pride about being rich with money, expertise and infracture should take a back seat to common sense that saves lives.

Res Ipsa wrote: There were significant mistakes that should be investigated and learned from. But this was not one of them.

You're the first person I've seen say this. Everyone else seems to admit the mistake or those in the Trump administration refuse to offer an explanation at all.

Res Ipsa wrote: It’s hard enough to get reliable information without folks slinging around conspiracy theory.

What conspiracy theory? That the Trump administration made a stupid mistake on this point, being perfectly consistent with its standard M.O.?

Res Ipsa wrote: ETA: This article from Fact Check gives a decent account of what occurred. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-f ... s-testing/

That article doesn't discuss anything about why we rejected the the WHO's testing.

The United States badly bungled coronavirus testing—but things may soon improve

Speed is critical in the response to COVID-19. So why has the United States been so slow in its attempt to develop reliable diagnostic tests and use them widely?

The World Health Organization (WHO) has shipped testing kits to 57 countries. China had five commercial tests on the market 1 month ago and can now do up to 1.6 million tests a week; South Korea has tested 65,000 people so far. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in contrast, has done only 459 tests since the epidemic began. The rollout of a CDC-designed test kit to state and local labs has become a fiasco because it contained a faulty reagent. Labs around the country eager to test more suspected cases—and test them faster—have been unable to do so. No commercial or state labs have the approval to use their own tests.

In what is already an infamous snafu, CDC initially refused a request to test a patient in Northern California who turned out to be the first probable COVID19 case without known links to an infected person.

Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus

As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.

The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.

What went wrong with the coronavirus tests in the U.S.

In late December, when reports of a new virus causing mysterious pneumonia began to trickle out of Wuhan, China, public health experts went on high alert. One of the first needs was to develop a test so that governments across the world would have the ability to track the spread of the virus.

China developed its own test. Leading laboratories in Germany published their own version, which was adopted by the World Health Organization. Many countries, including the United States, developed their own tests.

The traditional U.S. strategy for devising new diagnostic tests starts with the CDC. That is supposed to ensure new tests are accurate and reliable, but it also meant that other parallel approaches were not aggressively pursued.

Scott Gottlieb, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner in the Trump administration, said, “The key in a crisis like this is to take an all-of-the-above approach, whether we’re dealing with diagnostics or therapeutics.” That responsibility, he said, was up to other parts of the administration, such as the Department of Health and Human Services or the FDA.
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_MsJack
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Spoke with my doctor on Friday. She said she didn't think I should worry about a shortage of doctors or prenatal care. She says part of the reason China had a shortage was because they're short on doctors in general, and they had a lot of TCM practitioners there (she said she wasn't trying to knock Traditional Chinese Medicine but it's not what's needed to address coronavirus). But then again, Italy has one of the best healthcare systems in the world and they became short on doctors and supplies, so it is worrying.

She repeated what I already knew, that pregnant women don't seem to be at greater risk for this and that there doesn't seem to be transmission from mother to baby. I'm still wishing I wasn't about to have a baby in the middle of the first true pandemic this country has seen since 1918.

I am running a department for a convention in Chicago at the end of the month. I am somewhat surprised it hasn't been cancelled (yet), but I should be able to minimize contact with other people at the department I run.
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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Icarus, please provide me with the date that the CDC produced its first working test kit.

ETA: And the date on which WHO produced its first working test kit.

And the conspiracy theory you promoted was that the administration intentionally delayed the production of tests to enrich its rich buddies. That’s beyond stupid.

When hyperventilating, breathing into a paper bag can really help.
Last edited by Guest on Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

MsJack wrote:Spoke with my doctor on Friday. She said she didn't think I should worry about a shortage of doctors or prenatal care. She says part of the reason China had a shortage was because they're short on doctors in general, and they had a lot of TCM practitioners there (she said she wasn't trying to knock Traditional Chinese Medicine but it's not what's needed to address coronavirus). But then again, Italy has one of the best healthcare systems in the world and they became short on doctors and supplies, so it is worrying.

She repeated what I already knew, that pregnant women don't seem to be at greater risk for this and that there doesn't seem to be transmission from mother to baby. I'm still wishing I wasn't about to have a baby in the middle of the first true pandemic this country has seen since 1918.

I am running a department for a convention in Chicago at the end of the month. I am somewhat surprised it hasn't been cancelled (yet), but I should be able to minimize contact with other people at the department I run.


All good news. But be aware that the potential problem isn’t so much running out of doctors — it’s running out of hospital beds. Don’t know what your birth plan is, but you might want to think about building in some in some options. Hope for the best; plan for the worst. Something like that.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_EAllusion
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _EAllusion »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/c ... elays.html

This story seems “drag them from their offices” level bad. I guess hope it isn’t true?
_MsJack
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _MsJack »

Res Ipsa wrote:All good news. But be aware that the potential problem isn’t so much running out of doctors — it’s running out of hospital beds. Don’t know what your birth plan is, but you might want to think about building in some in some options. Hope for the best; plan for the worst. Something like that.

She said the maternity units in both network hospitals are self-contained and they don't allow other types of patients in the maternity wards. The hospital I'm supposed to deliver at has level 2 maternity/NICU services while the other in-network hospital is a level 3, so they aren't likely to want highly infectious patients around struggling premature babies, if they can help it.

They could always run out of PPE or other equipment I might need (like a ventilator if things go badly), but I'm hoping they've addressed equipment shortages by the time I deliver in a few months.
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_Chap
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Chap »

EAllusion wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

This story seems “drag them from their offices” level bad. I guess joe it isn’t true?


It appears to be the case.

TL;DR: Under Trump, the etiolated remains of the CDC that he has allowed to continue to exist, ably assisted by the FDA, has spent much effort in trying to prevent tests being carried out by those with the will and capacity to do so. During the time they were doing that, the COVID 19 virus appears to have 'gone native' in the US, and is probably now present much more widely than the current inadequate number of test results testify.
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_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

On Monday night, state regulators told them to stop testing altogether.


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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

MsJack wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:All good news. But be aware that the potential problem isn’t so much running out of doctors — it’s running out of hospital beds. Don’t know what your birth plan is, but you might want to think about building in some in some options. Hope for the best; plan for the worst. Something like that.

She said the maternity units in both network hospitals are self-contained and they don't allow other types of patients in the maternity wards. The hospital I'm supposed to deliver at has level 2 maternity/NICU services while the other in-network hospital is a level 3, so they aren't likely to want highly infectious patients around struggling premature babies, if they can help it.

They could always run out of PPE or other equipment I might need (like a ventilator if things go badly), but I'm hoping they've addressed equipment shortages by the time I deliver in a few months.


That all sounds great. I’d think the risk of self contained units like that being seriously affected in an overrun must be extremely low. I’ll be sending COVID free, healthy mom and baby thoughts your way.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
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