The coronavirus spread updated in real time

The Off-Topic forum for anything non-LDS related, such as sports or politics. Rated PG through PG-13.
Post Reply
_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _EAllusion »

Res Ipsa wrote:
EAllusion wrote:Clear your cookies Rep. The story on one level is about the quixotic efforts of the Seattle flu project to be adapted into a corona testing system. On another level, the bad one, it is about how bureaucratic rules, adopted for sensible reasons, led to bureaucrats delaying a sensible response by unreasonably setting up barriers that they did not take down fast enough. It led to a major screw up.

Your rhetorical food for thought seems to be asking, “how important is testing anyway?” I think the answer there is very if only to inform resource management.

In other news, apparently the Trump admin is doing this:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true


Sorry I don’t have time to distill a ton of information into a few pithy sentences. But your extrapolation of my bottom line is wrong. I’m not questioning the value of testing. I’m questioning the value of mass testing with this type of test. What I read from disease experts and epidemiologists is that testing for diagnosis of individual patients should be done when there is medical benefit in doing so. Surveillance testing should also be done, through an organized system of data collection so we can make good use of the data. We have flu surveillance systems that COVID testing can be integrated into. But the PCR test is ill suited for that because taking the test sample induced the mechanism that spreads the disease. (Effective swabbing makes one cough and or sneeze. But mass testing anyone who demands a test isn’t good surveillance testing because we have clue how representative that kind of self selected sample is.

I read late last night that China and Singapore have started to deploy a serum antibody test. That’s the tool we need to add COVID surveillance to our existing flu surveillance network. A blood test doesn’t induce coughing. The existing flu surveillance tests are blood tests.

Just as importantly, a negative PCR test only tells you whether you have enough virus on board today for the test to detect. It can’t tell you if you’ve had the disease. A Sun antibody test tells the patient and the health surveillance system whether they’ve had the disease.

TL/DR Testing is not cost less. We have to allocate the resources we have in a little to no evidence that testing every American with the test we have today is a smart use of resources.


Rep, I was trying to interpret cryptic wondering in the context of what otherwise was a reply to a Twitter summary of an article I linked. The value of the type of early testing that couldn't penetrate red tape was that it would've cast a crude dragnet that could've helped slow spread of the disease by having some infected individuals quarantine sooner and provide more detailed information about the extent of penetrance sooner than it was known. It wouldn't have been a adequate population sample, but I don't think that means it would've been without use. What wasn't approved of ultimately moved along, so I don't think that notion is out of line.
_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _EAllusion »

Italy Is Temporarily Shutting All Restaurants, Bars, And Most Stores In The Coronavirus Lockdown

That's rather drastic. The amount of economic havoc they are willingly taking on points to a grave situation if they don't do it.
_Chap
_Emeritus
Posts: 14190
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 10:23 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Chap »

EAllusion wrote:Italy Is Temporarily Shutting All Restaurants, Bars, And Most Stores In The Coronavirus Lockdown

That's rather drastic. The amount of economic havoc they are willingly taking on points to a grave situation if they don't do it.


They already have a grave situation.

9,000 people have been diagnosed with the disease, and over 800 people have died. Doctors are already beginning to have to envisage treating younger people needing intensive care, who are likely to recover if given the treatment they need, in preference filling up ICU beds with older people, who are less likely to survive.

Coming soon to a city near you, unless prompt and firm government action slows the disease down.
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_Res Ipsa
_Emeritus
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:37 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

[Response to Ea] And I was responding to your initial comment that the story sounds drag people out of their offices bad. I’ve now read the article, I learned very little that was new to me, as I’ve been following the information put out by Trevor and the Seattle flu study for a while now, and the reporters tweeting hit the essential points. It’s very easy, with 20-20 hindsight, to post that people should be dragged from their offices. It’s an entirely different thing to decide to throw protections for patient privacy and processes to insure that medical tests are effective into the trash bin. It’s exactly as I described above — systems designed to protect our health and safety can have the opposite effect when stressed, and there’s no rule book that tells us when we should throw the rule book away.

We’re seeing the results of having one of our two major political parties dedicating to drowning the federal government in a bathtub when combined with having an imbecile in charge of the federal government. We’ve also got a bunch of underfunded public health entities at the state and local levels because peopl to pay taxes. When those systems are placed under stress, they break. Bad decisions get made and opportunities get missed. That will continue to happen as this epidemic progresses.

Leadership at the national level, which should be coming from the CDC, is either absent or completely counterproductive. We can’t count on states and localities to hold up. Citizens have known what they should be doing on their own for weeks. But this focus on coulda, woulda, shoulda, is a huge distraction.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Res Ipsa
_Emeritus
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:37 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

This is probably the best article I’ve seen for understanding the context of our current situation. It’s long, but worth a read. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ts/561734/
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Lemmie
_Emeritus
Posts: 10590
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 7:25 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Lemmie »

This is a commenter on SeN, who is Utah Operations Chief, Utah Department of Heath for the COVID19 response:

We (UDOH) are having discussions with the Church about this health concern, that I am not at liberty to release just yet. See https://www.ksl.com/article...

Reading between the lines, I would recommend those who are 60+ find every way possible to minimize (without becoming a complete recluse) involvement with large crowds (large being defined as 250 or more) of people.

That being said, my best advice for believers is: Use that God given wisdom and Light of Christ that we all have access to, to help make those decisions.

OR for those who don't believe, use your best common sense.

https://www.patheos.com/blogs/danpeters ... 4828873221



From the link Sam gives

The lieutenant governor said state officials have also had conversations with other faith leaders about responding to the coronavirus outbreak.


:rolleyes: Of course they have. I can only imagine the response here in the tri-state area if the DOH catered to a single religion like this. It is unreal that this is acceptable in Utah.

But it does crack me up that “god given wisdom” and the “light of Christ” are apparently interchangeable with one’s “best common sense.” Or at least that’s how I am choosing to interpret this State official. Another interpretation is that he is being incredibly inappropriate in his public statements.
_Jersey Girl
_Emeritus
Posts: 34407
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:16 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Jersey Girl wrote:The second RX has already been electronically sent in. Normally, it'd take probably 3 days for it to be actually refilled because that's how the military functions or fails to function.


Do you guys use 'myhealthevet'?

https://www.myhealth.va.gov/mhv-portal-web/home

I have some friends that use it to have their medications shipped to them, schedule appts, communicate with their healthcare providers, etc.

- Doc



I feel like you mentioned that to me in the past but, no, we don't use it. JB does everything by phone and mail order. I communicate with my docs via patient portal messaging systems with only the random phone call and I use both civilian and base pharmacies. I'm going to go mail order for meds.

I will check that out though. Thanks!
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
_Jersey Girl
_Emeritus
Posts: 34407
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:16 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Jersey Girl »

So I ninja'd my way through the base pharmacy and Walmart. I chose to go to a Walmart that is in more populated area since it's near the base. Think urban sprawl. I didn't need any of the supplies we've been talking about (I went in for cookies :wink: ) but I did go around to size up the situation.

Hand soap: Plenty.

Hand Sanitizer: Didn't see it. If it was there I'm sure they'd have had it on the end caps instead of the hand soap.

Toilet Paper: OUT

Paper Towels: Minimal stock--maybe 10 packages?

Clorox Wipes: OUT

Social distancing: Well I did but I can't speak for the rest of the local world. At the pharmacy I saw one guy touching the counter top, his face, nose and around his mouth. Standing in line I kept a distance of 3-4 feet but the person behind me was only a foot behind me. Walmart wasn't busy so kind of not applicable. I stayed away from people like I normally do anyway.

Watched the first hearing for a local trial. The defense attorney was coughing her lungs up and trying to catch her breath in full pubic view, coughing with her head turned (no blocking) and coughing on her hands then passing paperwork to the DA's office folks. Nice going there, sis. :rolleyes:
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
_Icarus
_Emeritus
Posts: 1541
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:01 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Icarus »

Right Wing heads are exploding all over the country right now. They've spent weeks claiming the coronavirus was a Democrat hoax, insisting it was just a mild flu that was overblown by a Liberal media hellbent on destroying Trump's precious economy. And now Trump bans all travel from Europe for 30 days. I wonder when they'll start accusing Trump of being part of the Deepstate intent on destroying his own Presidency.
"One of the hardest things for me to accept is the fact that Kevin Graham has blonde hair, blue eyes and an English last name. This ugly truth blows any arguments one might have for actual white supremacism out of the water. He's truly a disgrace." - Ajax
_Jersey Girl
_Emeritus
Posts: 34407
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:16 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Icarus wrote:Right Wing heads are exploding all over the country right now. They've spent weeks claiming the coronavirus was a Democrat hoax, insisting it was just a mild flu that was overblown by a Liberal media hellbent on destroying Trump's precious economy. And now Trump bans all travel from Europe for 30 days. I wonder when they'll start accusing Trump of being part of the Deepstate intent on destroying his own Presidency.


Does that mean that US citizens traveling IN Europe are grounded there for a month? I know he made a statement I just haven't listened to it or read it yet. Taking the lazy way and asking you.
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
Post Reply