The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[_ajax18]

The idea is to reduce the amount of risk they face by keeping infectious spread to a minimum?

At what cost? Is unemployment going to be this high for the next 2 to 3 years? Are we going to do this every time a virus like this shows up?

[_EAllusion]

[quote]
At what cost?[/quote]

The economic cost of a plague ripping unimpeded through society is catastrophic. Finding a way for people to stay apart long enough to develop a system for testing people for the disease and isolating them as appropriate is the approach that provides the least economic pain. You're making it worse Ajax.

Maybe because you're finally able to be open, there's a 10 year old child somewhere who has been crying every day because she gets bad headaches when she tries to read who will finally get glasses. And that's wonderful. Thank goodness for you. And then, a few days later, you run into her and her dad at the small shop up the road and say hi. You talk about all the books she is reading again now that she can see. But because you've been a selfish asshat, you've been all around town to get life back to normal and have contracted COVID. You pass it along to her. She gets a little sick. Her parents take care of her, but her first her Dad falls ill, then her Mom. Mom gets very sick, but eventually gets back on her feet. Dad, unfortunately, is hospitalized and eventually dies. Because of you. Because you can't be bothered to sacrifice a little for the time being.

"Life is full of risks" you say in a bad French accent before you take a hard drag on a clove cigarette and drink Vermouth straight out of the bottle. Only some risks don't have to be taken and maybe you should think about other people when taking them.

[_Jersey Girl]

This was a good summary of how I feel about this. I can't stay unemployed for the next couple years. Thankfully that part is hopefully over for me. And Jersey Girl good luck getting a job with amazon or the grocery store. Who wants to hire someone that isn't going to be there for more than a month or so? Have you tried finding a job recently?

I don't know what you are trying to say here. Why are you asking me about getting a job with amazon or a grocery store? Is that on account of an earlier post I made on this or another thread about them hiring? If so, that was in direct response to you (why do I have to do all the work here, ajax?) saying how people are unemployed and need to go to work and I said if they need to work they can go to work as an essential worker like President Cuomo advised.

Why are you asking who wants to hire someone who isn't going to be there for more than a month or so (again, why am I doing the heavy lifting here to try to get you to respond in context so we can create a cohesive conversation here?)? Are you talking about me staying at home? If so you are mixing up the context in which two very different series of exchanges was taking place. One having nothing to do with the other and yet there you are cobbling them together as if they made sense.

No, I haven't tried to find a job recently. I don't need a job. I'm sitting my butt on acreage out in the sticks in a custom built home that was paid for the day we moved into it 3 decades ago, we are both retired now, we are financially free, we owe nothing to no one except to keep the lights on/insurance paid. Why? Because at any given point in our lives we made smart and cautious decisions about money. Never lived beyond our means and we still don't. In terms of our overall financial history, we're rolling in dough and have what we need to live a nice life.

So there you have it.

Your problem is that, unlike the Apostle Paul, you have never learned to be content regardless of your circumstances.

[_ajax18]

I'm personally don't go to the gym anymore. But I am going to work albeit at a reduced rate Work is where I draw the line. We have got to find way to keep people working.

[_Jersey Girl]

The idea is to reduce the amount of risk they face by keeping infectious spread to a minimum?

At what cost? Is unemployment going to be this high for the next 2 to 3 years? Are we going to do this every time a virus like this shows up?

Why are you asking this? It's like you don't know what's going on in the world. Here on these recent exchanges you've got EA who is like brainiac extraordinaire level and me a freaking retired ECE professional and I assure you that we both have a good idea what's going on (though EA can articulate it better because brainiac man over there plus he's more well rounded than I am in his ability assess data and all kinds of political crap, and don't get me started on his memory skills) in the world and what's your deal?

Is unemployment going to be this high for the next 2-3 years?

Not if the current research on (I'm doing it again, I'm having to try to inform you when by rights you should be informing ME) therapeutic treatments pans out and they come up with protocols that work to treat the virus and hopefully next year or late next year a viable vaccine emerges.

We're treading water right now. What don't you understand about that? We're trying to hold back the tide and buy ourselves time until the science hopefully catches up with it. Is the economy going to suffer? Yes. Is life going to change? Yes. And, you best get your head on straight about it. You're going to lose something. You're going to sacrifice something. Everyone of us is. Everyone one of us has already lost something in the pandemic. We have to ride this out.

Unless of course you let Trump tuck you in every night with his bedtime fairy tales about how this is all going to disappear and it'll be like a miracle.

You want a play dough recipe? Got any child behaviors you'd like to address? Because that's the stuff I should be telling you about and not the science that you yourself should be following and quite frankly, helping the rest of us to better understand.

But you don't do that.

You are bitching. You are constantly bitching about whatever thing as if you are a helpless victim and you yourself don't have a part in your own ability to succeed and/or withstand it. What don't you understand about pandemic, doctor?

You must learn to be content in your circumstance and resilient in your response. Geez if Jersey Boy came out with the crap you do I'd have him straightened out in under 15 minutes. You wouldn't last 5 seconds in conflict with me.

That's not you is it, JB?

[_Jersey Girl]

I'm personally don't go to the gym anymore. But I am going to work albeit at a reduced rate Work is where I draw the line. We have got to find way to keep people working.

Doctor, right now we are trying to find a way to keep people alive AND working. As President Cuomo's budget wizard said the other day and this is as succinct as it gets...

"We're building the plane while we're flying it." ~ can't recall her name at the moment, but she's golden.

Our job is to hang on and not lose our crap over it. You can't work if you're dead.

I gotta go. Don't say another word to me, do you hear me? I'm off to watch Macbeth from the Globe.

And turn down that FOX crap, down there!

[_Res Ipsa]

I took a look at some of the early posts in this thread to see the evolution of thought. For the most part, posters here were sharp about what's going on given the information at the time. Mistakes, Res Ipsa downplaying the likelihood of asymptomatic spread for instance, generally reflect the quality of available information. The biggest regrettable idea I get from those comments is that instead of saying only sick people should wear masks, it should've been people should be encouraged to wear masks by default just in case they're sick.

The two worst early takes I could find are Dr. Exiled with:

There is this article that says the beginning of the end might be here for the coronavirus:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronaupdate.html

Hopefully the data that backs up the article isn't being massaged somehow.

and Honor with:

Meanwhile, the millions of cases of flu and 10's of thousands of deaths from it this year are meh.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

Perspective. Yeah we don't know much about coronavirus but people get better after contracting it. Fatality rate is around 2% which is quite a bit higher than the flu but no where near the scary diseases like ebola or even SARS. Its unknown qualities and associated caution are necessary and drawing intense attention but it's a small blip compared to the deadly illnesses that are routine among us.

Interestingly, both very much reflect the type of sources they prefer at the time: Dr. Exiled with his John Bircher descended far right conspiracist contrarianism and Honor with very serious person punditry that was indulging in more-rational-than-thou don't panic messaging that downplayed the threat. Accordingly, you'd expect Dr. Exiled to still be flirting with kooksville and Honor to accept that was a regrettable underreaction.

The right-wing troll posters were staying away from the thread during that time.

Yep. There was an early poorly done study that claims asymptomatic transmission. Since then there is much better evidence of pre and asymptomatic transmission, which shows both are occurring. I do my best to stick to reliable evidence and am happy to change my mind when the evidence warrants. I’m not convinced that wearing the same cloth mask all day actually reduces transmission, but for shopping trips, etc., I doubt it does any harm. But if we get some reliable evidence about using the same cloth mask all day is developed, I’d be happy to change my mind.

Are you feeling better these days, EA?

[_ajax18]

But what about the people that work at the gym? The gym may not be essential to me but it sure is them.

[_Some Schmo]

If your work has the potential to kill large numbers of people, shouldn't you try to find other work?

Oh wait... West Virginia... coal miners... now I understand.

Forget it.

[_Res Ipsa]

The false dichotomy of health v. Jobs is getting old. Restarting the economy is not just a matter of people going back to work. It requires consumers to have enough confidence to resume normal spending and a way to prevent the virus of resuming exponential growth (both are linked). I doubt I’ll go to a movie in the foreseeable future. I won’t fly or set foot on a cruise ship before I’m vaccinated or the virus is no longer circulating in the US. Crowds are out. Luckily, I know enough hikes that aren’t popular enough to be a problem. If I were in a state that reopened near the peak of its epidemic curve, I’d continue to shelter in place as much as possible. And I doubt I’m the only one making these kinds of calculations. Handle this wrong, and your state gets both overrun hospitals and a crashed economy.