Biden vs. Trump

[_Icarus]

These are the states Trump won in 2016 which could potentially flip to Biden. I list them according to likelihood they flip, (number of electoral votes), and % margin by which Trump won in 2016 and the latest aggregate polling Trump vs. Biden using RCP average:

Arizona (11) 3.5% - Biden +4.0%
Michigan (16 ) .3% - Biden +8.0%
Florida (29) 1.2% - Biden +6.2%
Pennsylvania (20) .7% - Biden +5.6%
Wisconsin (10) .7% - Biden +5.4%
North Carolina (15) 3.6% - Trump +0.6%
Georgia (16) 5.1% - ????
Ohio (18) 8.1% - Trump +1.0%
Texas (38) 9.0% - Trump +1.0%

A swing of 38 electoral votes is all that's needed for Trump to lose and the world to win. But Biden would need to win at least Florida or Pennsylvania I would think.

[_Chap]

Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race

A New York Times/Siena College poll finds that Joseph R. Biden Jr. is ahead of the president by 14 points, leading among women and nonwhite voters and cutting into his support with white voters.

Things can always change during a campaign, but this is is a massive lead:



But what is more, Biden is eating into Trump's base too:

Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Mr. Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Mr. Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Mr. Trump’s in 2016.

[_Jersey Girl]

Good. He's beginning to feel the fear ...

Yes, but. Yes but what if he does something to shut down the USPS to prevent mail in ballot voting? Can he legally do that? I don't know the answer to that question. Would he,out of desperation, try? I think the answer to that is, yes.

[_EAllusion]

There's probably shenanigans with the USPS that can be done that I haven't thought of, but I can't imagine the capacity to just shut down the Post Office. It's a constitutionally enshrined function.

The goal here is to prevent the expansion of vote by mail in an election that is likely to be present significant difficulties in the smooth administration of in-person voting owing to a deadly pandemic. The idea is to make it sufficiently burdensome to likely Democratic voters to reduce their overall turnout.

There's likely still gonna be enough vote by mail that this is almost certainly going to be used to cast doubt on an election loss if the loss is close enough for anyone to take doubt seriously. Biden is absolutely crushing Trump right now. There's enough polling out to know that. Maybe that's enough for none of this to matter at the Presidential level. But that doesn't have to be the case 3 months from now.

[_subgenius]

Good. He's beginning to feel the fear ...

clearly you missed what Trump said during the election of 2016.

[_EAllusion]

Good. He's beginning to feel the fear ...

clearly you missed what Trump said during the election of 2016.

Yeah, I don't think Trump thought Trump was gonna win.

[Guest]

clearly you missed what Trump said during the election of 2016.

Who cares what Trump said during the election of 2016? Even you cannot possibly still be unaware of Trump's pathological dishonesty, can you?

And even you do not have the gall or temerity to deny that Trump's leadership and actions in the pandemic crises has been abysmal compared to most of the world, with the possible exception of Brazil's Bolsonaro, who seems well on track to make even Trump's and the US abysmal response seem laudatory by comparison.

[_MeDotOrg]

Joe Biden will pull more Republicans away from Trump than Hillary Clinton. We have 3 ½ years of empirical evidence. Joe is a amiable lunch-pail kind of guy from blue collar America. He's not a cool, dispassionate African-America or a woman whose husband was impeached. I think there are fewer negative associations for Joe Biden, and that will make it easier for some member of the GOP to cross that line.

But I think a principled Libertarian candidate would be ideally positioned to pull a lot of votes from the political diaspora created by the Trump Presidency. A number of people who will never vote for a Democrat but can't really fathom voting for Trump would be ripe for the taking.

[_Gunnar]

Joe Biden will pull more Republicans away from Trump than Hillary Clinton. We have 3 ½ years of empirical evidence. Joe is a amiable lunch-pail kind of guy from blue collar America. He's not a cool, dispassionate African-America or a woman whose husband was impeached. I think there are fewer negative associations for Joe Biden, and that will make it easier for some member of the GOP to cross that line.

But I think a principled Libertarian candidate would be ideally positioned to pull a lot of votes from the political diaspora created by the Trump Presidency. A number of people who will never vote for a Democrat but can't really fathom voting for Trump would be ripe for the taking.

You are undoubtedly right about that. Let's hope that the number of votes pulled from Trump significantly exceeds the number pulled from Biden.

[_Gunnar]

There's probably shenanigans with the USPS that can be done that I haven't thought of, but I can't imagine the capacity to just shut down the Post Office. It's a constitutionally enshrined function.

But don't forget that Trump has already succeeded in getting away with numerous things that were previously thought unimaginable for even a President to get away with.