Biden vs. Trump

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

I really feel that a Black Southerner would be Biden’s best bet to energize the Black voting bloc. Val Demings would probably deliver Florida, but I’m unsure about Georgia. Keisha Bottoms would probably deliver Georgia, but would that translate to Florida? I think Kamala Harris would be fine, but I’m not sure she’d resonate with east coast POCs.

I’m calling it now.

Biden gets Oprah on the ticket, wins in a landslide, everyone gets free gift baskets.

- Doc

[_EAllusion]

I am having a hard time distinguishing between criticizing the politics of the nexus of Yang/Sanders supporters as people who just want free stuff as different in substance from the criticizing Democratic voters in general as just people who want free stuff. That skirts over so much nuance, both in terms of ideology and culture, that it's pathetic.

It's not about the politics of any group. DT, the poster, is that simple.

He sounds like that group and clearly consumes material from that group. I think he's probably just from that group.

[_EAllusion]

I really feel that a Black Southerner would be Biden’s best bet to energize the Black voting bloc.

Based on what evidence?

The weird thing about this assertion in some crowds is Biden himself is the candidate that best energizes black voters. Blacks as crude demographic voting bloc got their candidate. Biden has a voter enthusiasm problem, but that runs across the spectrum and primarily a problem with young people and progressives including blacks who fall in that category.

VP's famously have little to no impact on the election. It's better to think of them in terms of their potential influence on policy by being in the room and as a Presidential back-up plan for President Oldbottoms. They do provide a small bounce in their home state if they are popular in that state - a bit larger it they come from a small state. They can move the needle a small amount among niche groups, but again, there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence that a black candidate is what is needed to move black voters.

"Black voters want a black person" despite black voters themselves saying they do not feels uncomfortably getting into the territory of racial condescension.

[_honorentheos]

He sounds like that group and clearly consumes material from that group. I think he's probably just from that group.

It's narrowly about his intuition of how he'd benefit from UBI. If you want to say that is representative of a particular groups behavior and political views - such as that can be call having a view - so be it. In that case, I'm surprised you find criticism of that difficult to distinguish from other political views on the left. DT and Elizabeth Warren? Same f'n neighborhood, right?

[_EAllusion]

If you're trying to play the "pick someone from a crucial state" game, you probably want someone from one of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Arizona.

Tammie Baldwin is the only name I'm aware of from those states that gets seriously tossed around at this point. That'd be a terrible strategic decision as she's almost certainly getting replaced by a Republican in that scenario.

Given that:

1) Democrats need to control the Senate to meaningfully enact their agenda
2) In the best case scenarios control of the Senate will be on the knife's edge for Democrats
3) Republicans enjoy a long-term structural advantage in Senate representation
4) Midterms, and especially Wisconsin midterms, tend to go against the Presidential incumbent party

It seems catastrophically stupid to take Baldwin out of her WI Senate seat. Picking her would be a sign to me they have no idea what the stakes are or how to play the game.

[_EAllusion]

DT and Elizabeth Warren? Same f'n neighborhood, right?

It's not, though. DT's part of the Sanderista types who think Warren is a snake. Who are these idiot Sanders fans who post snake emojis at Warren supporters? DT, that's who. Since they both are in the same part of the dipole political spectrum in terms of policy and tend to be political allies, you'd think that liking one means liking the other, but that's not how it shakes out in practice. That's why Warren primary voters didn't all flock to Sanders and why Sanders voters wouldn't have necessarily flocked to Warren.

In terms of his political preferences, DT is a stereotype. His argumenative style is...not great, but he's not unique. He's an alt-lite type Democrat if there ever was one. That's all. Those people tend to like Sanders and dislike Warren. I think her having a vagina has a lot to do with that, but they'd freak out at the suggestion. They'd tell you she isn't authentic and will be a corporate/moderate sell-out or whathaveyo, then parade out Gabbard as proof of their lack of sexism.

I think there are substantial differences between Warren and Sanders because I think Warren has better priorities, is a more effective political operator, and surrounds herself with much better people. I can't stress enough how big of a deal the latter point is. I also think there are subtle policy differences between the two that are more important than the superficial closeness implies. I'd rank Warren at or near the top of all possible Democratic candidates and Sanders at or near the bottom. I'd like to think I have well-considered ideological views. I don't think DT does, but my point is there's all sorts of reason that people can like one without the other.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

[quote=EAllusion post_id=1230136 time=1593371559 user_id=1078]
[quote="Doctor CamNC4Me" post_id=1230132 time=1593370226 user_id=3779]
I really feel that a Black Southerner would be Biden’s best bet to energize the Black voting bloc. [/quote]

Based on what evidence? [/quote]

A feeling? That’s why I said “I really feel...”.

Also, I’ve known a fuckload of Southern black folk and we’ve had a lot of discussions regarding politics. There are regional biases that come into play that I’m ‘feeling’ are at play here.

- Doc

[_EAllusion]

If it's a feeling, then it's a feeling Doc. One thing I will say is that if you finds someone who really clicks with an identity, that works. Mitt Romney being loved by Mormons is the first example in my mind. I think some people have overlearned the lesson of black voters' love of Obama, though. I'm not sure any plausible VP candidate fits that bill for Black southerners.

The people who think Demmings and co is the way to do it for the most part strike me as people who just want a moderate so Warren isn't VP or people with lazy "gotta get a black to get the blacks excited" thinking.

[Guest]

You think a lot of things. DT? Not so much. Recognizing DT is posting about who he may or may not vote for aligns with stuff he reads on the internet doesn't say anything about 1) if he even has the motivation to vote, period, and 2) that his relationship to what he reads includes internalizing it in anyway. I doubt it. I think he is a dude doesn't seeing much to give him hope while being stuck in a job that lacks a future career path, and he isn't liking his prospects but doesn't have the tools needed to do anything about it. So he hopes something external to his actions and abilities will change it for him. Yang brought UBI and the belief A.I. and automation will reshape work so the world is going to have to figure out how to deal with a population that can't be employed due to lack of skills not replaceable by robots. Minus Yang, Sanders talks about big slogan-heavy, details light ideas of how to support the same group of marginal workers.

We've had enough one on ones here for most posters to recognize DT keeps getting good advice aimed at helping him work on the problems that fuel his undeveloped political "views". Without knowing the details of who he is or what obstacles are in his way, maybe he genuinely is stuck and unable to improve his life without a serious hand up. Maybe he needs a mentor...seems likely, actually. But whatever it is, DT is politically naïve while latching onto a few ideas like UBI because it sounds better than what he's got currently going on. Again, there are plenty of people associated with every ideology under the sun who are naïve fringe affiliates who probably couldn't articulate a coherent sentence explaining their views once pushed to explain a slogan or catchphrase.

[_EAllusion]

Let me simplify my point. DT isn't a fan of Yang and Sanders because they promise him free stuff. He's a fan of them because he belongs to a culture that is a fan of them and finds the ideas that float in that culture appealing.