100 Days Out

[_moksha]

... refrained from abolishing all semblance of law and order.

Law and order from a President who has hinted he might be unwilling to leave if he loses the election?

[_Some Schmo]

But I think she would have been even more incompetent than either Trump or Pence at organizing any kind of response, whether well thought out or not. Nevertheless, having someone like Sarah Palin at the helm could not possibly be a good thing.

Yeah, I can't disagree with any of this. I suppose the only difference would have been the appearance of an attempt at a serious response, rather than the sh-it show we got. If she tried something (I think the proper response is every Christian in this country get to their local church... Let's pray COVID away!! God helps those who help themselves!! Let's let him here our voices together...!), it's probable she'd have aggravated the problem.

[_Some Schmo]

If the Democrats would have known winning would be this easy perhaps they wouldn't have resorted to wrecking the economy with panic porn media and refrained from abolishing all semblance of law and order.

You really are stupid enough to believe European media cares about the Democrat's agenda, aren't you? They faked their various COVID crises just for Biden, right?

You are a moron.

[_moksha]

Eastman Kodak Co. has won a $765 million government loan under the Defense Production Act, the first of its kind. The purpose: to help expedite domestic production of hydroxychloroquine that President Trump has touted in the treatment of coronavirus.

[_Brackite]

Today I spent a little time at 270 to win. Their current map has Biden with 278 votes in states likely to vote Democrat, and Trump with 168 votes leaning or likely Republican.

The map shows the way to 270 for Trump is hazardously narrow. There are 91 electoral votes marked as 'toss up'. He has to win EVERY toss-up state in addition to flipping a few states that are now leaning Democrat. To understand the electoral danger Trump is in, consider Florida's 28 electoral votes. Florida's 28 would push Biden to 307. In order to win, Trump would have to win remaining every toss-up state, as well as peel away 34 other votes.

Yet the current polling in Florida has Biden with over a +5 lead. Where is the trend that will swing the Sunshine State back to Trump? Don't expect coattails from Governor DeSantis, whose sinking popularity ratings are slightly north of 40%. With Labor Day, hurricane season and school re-openings in the pipeline, the trend lines would seem to be moving away from the President.

A Ron DeSantis apointee, Laurel Lee, is the current Florida Secretary of State. She looks a lot like Pam Bondi. Her husband is a member of the Republican State Senate. Florida vote tabulation will bear watching.

I got burned in 2016. I missed Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. AND I'm looking at the 2020 map 100 days out, in the most volatile period of the 21st Century. So why am I so pessimistic about Trump's chances? What is so different?

2016 Trump was an unknown. He base loved him, and there were enough doubts about Hillary Clinton (Wikileaks, cough, cough...) for Trump to squeak by in 3 key states. In 2020 Trump is a known, and to know him is not to love him. About 50% of electorate now says they would never vote for Trump, and less than 15% of voters are undecided at this point.

Without a miracle vaccine or treatment, Trump can only overcome the perception of incompetence in his Pandemic response by deflection. About the only thing he has left in his arsenal is The Other, played admirably by the foreign hordes in 2016. In 2020, the part of The Other is played by Americans. Portland, Seattle, Chicago...it feels like a slow-moving Reichstag Fire. It's a more difficult sell when you have MOMs and VETs protecting the protesters.

Can Rudy Giuliani produce an October Surprise? Donald Rumsfeld said "there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones." So is there an unknown out there? Oh hell, probably.

I don't really know about Wisconsin leaning Democrat. I would still consider Wisconsin a 'toss up' state.

Florida has 29 electoral votes. Trump was able to win Florida in 2016 by winning with a huge margin among older white voters. Trump is not pulling that well among older Florida voters this year.

[_Brackite]

You know what? You made me rethink my last response. I admit I find it very difficult to believe that anyone, including Palin could have botched the pandemic response worse than Trump. And I also agree that she probably would not quite as stubbornly have contradicted qualified medical authorities as Trump did. But I think she would have been even more incompetent than either Trump or Pence at organizing any kind of response, whether well thought out or not. Nevertheless, having someone like Sarah Palin at the helm could not possibly be a good thing.

If Pence was President instead, I don't think that he would have been as incompetent as Trump.

[_Chap]

If Pence was President instead, I don't think that he would have been as incompetent as Trump.

But that is precisely the problem: the downside of any non-electoral removal of Trump, whether by his friendly local virus, impeachment, or an 'accident' is that you will automatically get President Pence. And you might not enjoy having a competent President who espouses the Dominionist views he holds: see the full version of the article whose beginning is quoted below.

A Theology of Power: Mike Pence and the Dominionists

Those involved in what’s become a major component of the evangelical right in the United States call themselves “dominionists.” They follow “dominion theology.” Pointing to the Bible, they emphasize that in it God gave humans “dominion” over the natural world and life in it. This, they believe, gives them license to exploit the earth. Further, the “dominionists” have expanded this to justify theocratic rule of society.

It is an evangelical segment that Donald Trump has sought to attract. They constitute a significant portion of his so-called “base.”

And, as the just-published book, The Shadow President: The Truth About Mike Pence, by award-winning journalists and authors Michael D’Antonio and Peter Eisner, states: “For most of his life Pence had believed he was guided by God’s plan. He believed that the Lord intended for him to halt the erosion of religious conviction in the United States. And though he avoided stating it himself, many of his evangelical friends vbelieved Pence’s ultimate purpose was to establish a government based on biblical law. That was what they called Christian Dominionism.”

Thus arises a big wrinkle in the Trump situation. If Trump resigns. is impeached or otherwise is no longer president and Pence replaces him, it could not only be a change of who is on top but a likely push for a different form of United States government.

[_Some Schmo]

“For most of his life Pence had believed he was guided by God’s plan. He believed that the Lord intended for him to halt the erosion of religious conviction in the United States. And though he avoided stating it himself, many of his evangelical friends believed Pence’s ultimate purpose was to establish a government based on biblical law. That was what they called Christian Dominionism.”

There is nothing quite like religion to get in the way of trusting someone. It has gotten to the point where if someone even speaks of their religion, I am inclined to avoid them like the plague. Numerous bad experiences make me think religion primarily attracts assholes.

Religion is a cheap patina of respectability. There's something missing from your character if you have to rely on it to give your reputation worth.

Pence is an obvious piece of sh-it, and religion is the undigested corn dotting his existence.