Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

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Marcus
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

Post by Marcus »

What could that effect be, exactly? If we take the model seriously, it should be something that has stayed pretty consistent since the mid-seventies.
My first instinct was to suggest Correlation, but when I went looking for dates, I found its history is a bit tricky to pin down. Still, Correlation efforts in the lds church have been stable at least since the time frame you suggest.

I did find this information, in the form of an 8 part interview with a person whose dissertation was on Mormon correlation, in case you're interested. Here is the introduction from part 1:
Correlation: An Uncorrelated History (Part 1 — The Mormon Underground)
MARCH 3, 2010 BY BRAD

This post marks the beginning of a series on the origins and historical development of what Mormons typically denote with the term “Correlation.” It’s a long and complicated story, one that will require a number of installments to adequately canvas. It’s also an incredibly interesting story, involving, among other things, polygamy, the Underground, manifestoes, post-manifesto polygamy, senators, aspiring senators, “courts of love,” monogamy, Fundamentalism, Church welfare, apostolic infighting, charts and graphs, minds and bodies, lying, truth-telling, bureaucracies, Navajos, and a plethora of John Taylors.

[Subsequent installments: Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9]

Since this is a topic for which I, like most Church members, lack any serious expertise (though not for a lack of curiosity), I have decided to consult an expert. And, much to my relief, it turns out that there is one. Daymon M. Smith might be the most important scholar of Mormonism that you’ve never heard of. He completed his PhD in Anthropology at the University of Pennsylvania in 2007. Happily, his dissertation topic was the rise of the Modern, Correlated Church. I’ve actually read Daymon’s dissertation — twice, in fact. Unfortunately, like so much of today’s social science, Daymon’s very rich historical analysis and the unprecedented empirical data that underlie it are rather difficult to dig out of the disciplinary jargon in which they are couched. Reading it, as a properly initiated anthropologist, was an exercise in both illumination and despair — the conjoined awareness of the work’s significance and its inaccessibility to most of those who would find it most interesting (not unlike, it turns out, most dissertations, but whatever).

As an antidote to this dilemma, I offered, and Daymon graciously agreed, to record a series of extended conversations, the first portion of which is transcribed below (with much more to come). It’s a long conversation, one that stretches back to pre-Manifesto Mormonism. It’s meant to be a kind of prolegomenon to Daymon’s analysis and argument, a conversation about and engagement with the dissertation, though by no means a substitute for reading it. For those brave, tireless souls who are interested, the dissertation is available here in pdf form. Daymon is currently at work on two separate books drawn from the dissertation. The conversation that follows, it is hoped, provides a serviceable and accessible introduction to a complicated but relentlessly fascinating topic.

Introduction: Origins

https://bycommonconsent.com/2010/03/03/ ... derground/
Here is a link to Daymon Smith's dissertation:

https://bycommonconsent.files.wordpress ... tation.pdf
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Res Ipsa
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

Post by Res Ipsa »

Interesting dissertation.
Fundamentalists and Latter-day Saints are indeed connected to the historical events, though their narrations of these times do not necessarily accurately reflect. In their misunderstanding of history I find one of the more significant effects of culture change: elimination of capacity to see change.
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

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Physics Guy
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

Post by Physics Guy »

When the offer to unpack a technical dissertation for lay people is described as "a kind of prolegomenon", you know the unpacking is only going to go so far. But I may give it a try.

I've heard about Correlation on this board, but I only have a vague idea of what it is and has been. Some kind of systematic effort by LDS church authorities to make everybody teach the same things, is my guess. If it's something that started up in the seventies and has been kept going since, then it might well be a big part of the picture of church growth in the period that fits this one logistic function.

Correlation might not exactly be a direct cause of the negative feedback effect. It could instead be a symptom, the way the weather gets colder just as people start wearing sweaters. Studying Correlation might still be the best way to get a handle on the negative feedback in that case, though. The church authorities may well have recognized the real problem, with all the data they had, so whatever their best idea was for a solution, that idea of theirs would be a clue for us about the nature of the problem as they saw it.

I say this in part because I've been thinking about what could make a quadratically scaling negative effect on growth. The classic example for animal population growth is something like fights between animals, which become more common even per capita as population density rises. With N critters in the same patch of ground, the number of fights should be proportional to N^2, because to have a fight you've got to first have one animal somewhere, and then also have a second one in the same place at the same time.

In other words, a negative N^2 growth effect usually represents competition within the existing population. So for the LDS church I was kind of imagining that different individual Mormons who are trying to convert people might be trying to convert people to different versions of Mormonism, so that if someone is exposed to multiple Mormon viewpoints they end up joining none of them, because the divergent sales pitches somehow cancel out.

If that were in fact a problem, and such a big problem that Mormon leaders could see it clearly, then Correlation might make sense as their response.

But it could be something else, maybe something simpler. If we're trying to convert people out of some non-Mormon population, maybe some fraction X of that pool of apparently potential converts is really just never actually going to be converted by any amount or form of missionary activity: one way or another, they've already made up their minds and said No. So to get a conversion, you need to get a missionary into contact with one of the genuine potential converts, who are only (1-X) of the people, and that means that if you send out a number M of missionaries, and each one has a success chance of S, then you can expect to get S x M x (1-X) converts. If your number of missionaries is a set fraction of your number of members, your rate of conversion growth should be proportional to N, but times that (1-X) factor.

What if X goes up in proportion to N? The more Mormons there are in the world, and the more missionaries, and the more responses from other non-Mormon groups trying to counter the Mormon proselytising, the more people have already heard enough about Mormonism to decide they don't want it.

ETA: On the other hand, to really get a logistic growth curve this X factor has to keep on going up steadily with N, even until it reaches one. That's the Mormon membership plateau point, and if this hypothesis about the negative feedback is right, then the plateau will get hit when literally everyone in the world has already heard enough about Mormonism to know that they definitely don't want it, no matter what any missionaries may say, and so missionary effectiveness falls to flat zero. The more Mormons there are in the world, the more the rest of the world knows about Mormonism before the missionaries even knock on the door, and so the closer we get to that limit point. So Mormon growth is inherently self-limiting, according to this particular theory of negative feedback, because at some point the growth itself is going to have generated enough negative publicity to prevent further growth.

I don't know if that's plausible. That particular theory of negative feedback doesn't necessarily have to be plausible, though, for the logistic model to still be correct. There can actually be any number of different factors that either favour or limit growth, all operating at once. As long as all the significant factors scale either linearly or quadratically with current number, and as long as the totals of all the linear effects and of all the quadratic effects remain steady over the time frame considered, the result will be logistic.
Last edited by Physics Guy on Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

Post by I Have Questions »

Rivendale wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:40 pm
The church has a "living wage" being established to help. Elder Christofferson recently said this.
Enough to support yourself, support your family, and have enough left over so you have time to serve in the church.
Do you have a reference for this please?
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Rivendale
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

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I Have Questions wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:15 am
Rivendale wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:40 pm
The church has a "living wage" being established to help. Elder Christofferson recently said this.

Do you have a reference for this please?
Yes.
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

Post by huckelberry »

Rivendale wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:43 pm
I Have Questions wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:15 am
Do you have a reference for this please?
Yes.
All I heard on that link was a person stating a fairly ordinary definition of the phrase, living wage. Nothing about where an African finds this.Nothing about how the hope relates to the LDS church.
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Rivendale
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Re: Interesting Data On Membership Numbers In The U.S.

Post by Rivendale »

huckelberry wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 4:41 pm
Rivendale wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:43 pm


Yes.
All I heard on that link was a person stating a fairly ordinary definition of the phrase, living wage. Nothing about where an African finds this.Nothing about how the hope relates to the LDS church.
I noticed that to. I don't know any further details on how the church is helping but I think the glaring phrase is the last one. What is left should be used for church service. Usually they give advice to give to the church first. Even before buying food. Apparently there isn't the infrastructure to demand this in Africa.

Eta....full video here. https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/b ... ng=eng
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