Hurricane Milton

[Res Ipsa]

I did some catching up. Milton went through an eye wall replacement cycle overnight and is now a cat 4. It will pass over some very warm water — the loop current, but will then enter cooler water. That, together with some wind sheer, means it should not be a cat 5 when it reaches the coastline.

In his last update, Jeff Masters reminded readers of a couple of things. First, this storm will have had the whole length of the gulf to push water that will form the storm surge. As the storm weakens, the winds will be lower but the storm will get bigger. That means storm surge along a wider area. But there will be a major storm surge, especially north of where the eye crosses the coastline. The three most damaging Atlantic hurricanes all reached cat 5 and weakened before landing.

Also, something I did not know is that the probability that the hurricane eye will be within the cone is 2/3. Masters gives the standard error for the cone at different times away from landfall. Man, I don’t think I’d trade my seismic and volcanic risk for hurricane risk.

[ajax18]

Ugh. I just finished getting the tree debris out of my yard from the last storm. The county picked it up yesterday (thank goodness). One piece was a big as a small tree itself, and it took out a small tree on its way to the ground. Bought a chainsaw to cut it up. We picked up our daughter from her uni to bring her home. I have my fingers crossed that our house is not hit by a tree. We were lucky last time. We, too, have large trees all around our house.

They say the roots are supposed to grow together to keep the trees from falling. But on my little hill the rain eroded to the point the roots were exposed.

[Jersey Girl]

I forgot what thread to post this on.

Family in St. Pete went up to J'ville. One of their cars and condo got pretty much totaled out by Helene.

My sister and friend are on the east side of Cape Coral. Sis reports that the local convenience stores ran out of gas yesterday. People leaving out or I guess just gassing up as well. Sis feels confident about staying in their present location.

There's not much choice at this point since the major roads are backed up all the way to kingdom come by now.

[Jersey Girl]

Also, something I did not know is that the probability that the hurricane eye will be within the cone is 2/3. Masters gives the standard error for the cone at different times away from landfall. Man, I don’t think I’d trade my seismic and volcanic risk for hurricane risk.

I'm not sure I'd trade for your natural happenings. The eye of a hurricane is probably the most eerie and funky experience and sights I've ever seen in my life. Unforgettable for sure. Everything stopped, then whipped back up and if memory serves that's when the surge came. In our case it was approximately 6 feet and 3 feet inside the house. Long story how it go into the house. Stuff floating around on the first floor. All my toys and dolls...wiped out. Camping stove and kettle upstairs, loaf of bread and jar of peanut butter, a few utensils. Battery operated radio...that's what we had.

My BFF and I had said good bye in the street before the storm "See you after the hurricane". We were scared but didn't fully understand what we were in for.

Cars and large appliances floating down the street. Boats slipped their moorings and ended up in the street. Pilings pulled up like someone dumped out a box of huge toothpicks. The Harbor Master's "shack" blew clear into the middle of the marina. What a sight! Old blind man (BBF's uncle) down the block had a suspected cardiac event...my friends father (First Aid squad--big man well over 6ft tall) walking chest deep in the (cold) water wearing jeans and a t shirt with a row boat to provide aid and transport if needed. Fish, seaweed, etc., got into home heating systems. Just gross and weird.

You don't forget those things or the way people helped each other.

[Kishkumen]

Stay safe Reverend. I’ll be thinking of you.

Will do! Thanks!

[Kishkumen]

They say the roots are supposed to grow together to keep the trees from falling. But on my little hill the rain eroded to the point the roots were exposed.

I am sorry the storm slammed you guys!

[Res Ipsa]

Damn, this storm is something else. It’s Cat 5 again. Rapid intensification strikes again.

[Morley]

Good luck, Kish.

[Jersey Girl]

Damn, this storm is something else. It’s Cat 5 again. Rapid intensification strikes again.

It's gonna keep shifting gears.

[Jersey Girl]

Crap. This report from my favorite independent weather guy in Denver.

Update on Hurricane Milton tonight.
Back to Category 5 status. Winds are 165mph sustained near the eyewall and pressure continues to drop. It’s a Meteorological specimen that continues to leave me dumbfounded.
Overnight and into the day on Wednesday, Milton will continue to track towards the northeast as it encounters a trough moving across the southeast. This trough contains drier air aloft and wind shear which will both act to weaken the storm. This will provide a false sense of security and hope for couple of reasons.

1. The west coast of Florida is one of the most storm surge prone regions in the World.
2. Once a hurricane reaches Category 5 status, the storm surge in the ocean is created and set in motion. So, even if Milton makes landfall overnight Wednesday night as a Category 3, the storm surge that moves inland is still the same surge that was created when Milton was a Category 5.
3. As Milton weakens and goes through eyewall replacement cycles, the storm will get bigger and the wind field will expand. So, not only does Milton pose a life threatening and catastrophic storm surge threat anywhere between Cedar Key and Sarasota, heavy rainfall will pose a flooding risk inland. 6-12” of rain is likely along I-4 from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach with isolated areas that could get up to 18” and this is on top of what already fell over the last two days! The soil is already saturated. There’s nowhere for the water to go.
4. Milton will also pose a damaging wind threat inland as well where downed trees, power lines, and widespread power outages are also likely.
Tomorrow ahead of landfall, the feeder bands on the east side of the circulation will move over Florida and train from south to north. These feeder bands will contain showers and thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. Tropical tornadoes are very common with landfalling hurricanes.
The forecast model trends today have shifted landfall just to the south of Tampa Bay, but my concern for storm surge has not changed.
Storm surge of 10-15 feet remains possible in Tampa Bay and Cape Coral. Realistically, EVERYONE on the western Florida coast from Cedar Key down to Key West needs to be prepared for storm surge.
**Once Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula, and re-emerges in the Atlantic, wind and storm surge will become an issue on the eastern shore of Florida from Daytona Beach up to Savannah as winds rotate counter-clockwise around the eye and push ocean water onshore from east to west. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is likely going into the day on Thursday**
Today was your last full day of preparation. Conditions go downhill through the day tomorrow, becoming exponentially worse Wednesday evening and night ahead of landfall.

Cape Coral is where my Sis and friend are.

One of the Q&A's from that thread:

Pat Kline
Kody, when you have a minute, would you expound on point two? I'm having a hard time figuring out why, if the winds lessen and the rotation of the hurricane slows, the storm surge would remain the same.
3h
Reply
Denver & Front Range Weather
Pat Kline
Inertia! Also, pressure changes, changes in the depth of the shelf off the coast, astronomical tide.
Tons of factors. Once you get water moving, it’s hard to stop it.