Latter-day Saint Youth Keep Surprising Us

[I Have Questions]

What I will say, again...and was my point in beginning this thread...is that Latter-day Saint youth are an amazing group of young people, growing in numbers, sharing the gospel throughout the world.

Do you feel similar about believing Scientology youth, and Islamic youth, and Jehovah’s Witnesses youth, and Jedi youth?

[I Have Questions]

This is what would be expected from an outsider to the faith. What I will say, again...and was my point in beginning this thread...is that Latter-day Saint youth are an amazing group of young people, growing in numbers, sharing the gospel throughout the world. Rather than shrinking...growing in numbers. Influence...growing rather than shrinking.

Is it growth? I mean, is the number of missionaries now a bigger proportion of the number of active 18-21 year olds than it has been in the past? Because if the current finite number represents a smaller proportion of the number of active 18-21 year olds, that isn’t growth, it’s decline. The finite number in isolation doesn’t tell us anything. You might be lauding growth when in fact the numbers are shrinking in relative terms.

[Marcus]

What I will say, again...and was my point in beginning this thread...is that Latter-day Saint youth are an amazing group of young people, growing in numbers, sharing the gospel throughout the world.

Do you feel similar about believing Scientology youth, and Islamic youth, and Jehovah’s Witnesses youth, and Jedi youth?

Of course he does. Remember, he has told us he is a "universalist" who is "always open to something that might 'out compete' what I've come to know and/or understand."

[I Have Questions]

This fact based assessment suggests the number of LDS Missionaries is more about historic birth rates than it is about increasing proportions of faith and devotion.

The record-breaking number of missionaries we are currently enjoying is going to peak in the next year or two (or maybe already has), and then start a precipitous decline. You can mark my prediction here.
The reason is not because of a crisis in confidence in the leadership, smartphones, your cousin reading the CES letter, some policy failure of the Seminaries and Institutes Department or, somehow, Donald Trump (since he always manages to make an appearance in every discussion about everything), although I’m sure there will be plenty of shooting-from-the-hip speculations along those lines if the crash comes. Rather, it’s from something much more banal: demographics.
The engine of the Church’s proselytizing is in the 18-20 year old demographic in US, and the Latter-day Saint corridor in particular. In the next couple of years the cohort of 18-20 year olds is going to significantly shrink as a result of the steep drop in childbearing that happened in 2008 in wake of the Great Recession and has persisted since then.

If I had to make a less confident, but more numerically precise estimate, one projection has Utah’s college population declining by 6% from 2023-2041, so I’d put my pin there If I had to make a precise prediction. Of course other parameters might change. For example, our retention rate has declined quite a bit between the 2014 and 2025 Pew Religious Landscape Survey. If that trend continues it may be higher than 6% decline. However, I suspect our retention rate has plateaud so I’m staying with a 6% decline, but time will tell.
I might be wrong about our missionary force declining, but it’s hard to fight against demographic waves, so I don’t think I will be.

More information is always better.

[malkie]

This fact based assessment suggests the number of LDS Missionaries is more about historic birth rates than it is about increasing proportions of faith and devotion.

The record-breaking number of missionaries we are currently enjoying is going to peak in the next year or two (or maybe already has), and then start a precipitous decline. You can mark my prediction here.
The reason is not because of a crisis in confidence in the leadership, smartphones, your cousin reading the CES letter, some policy failure of the Seminaries and Institutes Department or, somehow, Donald Trump (since he always manages to make an appearance in every discussion about everything), although I’m sure there will be plenty of shooting-from-the-hip speculations along those lines if the crash comes. Rather, it’s from something much more banal: demographics.
The engine of the Church’s proselytizing is in the 18-20 year old demographic in US, and the Latter-day Saint corridor in particular. In the next couple of years the cohort of 18-20 year olds is going to significantly shrink as a result of the steep drop in childbearing that happened in 2008 in wake of the Great Recession and has persisted since then.

If I had to make a less confident, but more numerically precise estimate, one projection has Utah’s college population declining by 6% from 2023-2041, so I’d put my pin there If I had to make a precise prediction. Of course other parameters might change. For example, our retention rate has declined quite a bit between the 2014 and 2025 Pew Religious Landscape Survey. If that trend continues it may be higher than 6% decline. However, I suspect our retention rate has plateaud so I’m staying with a 6% decline, but time will tell.
I might be wrong about our missionary force declining, but it’s hard to fight against demographic waves, so I don’t think I will be.

More information is always better.

in my opinion, the article is worth reading, as are the comments, some of which suggest that the author of the article is unduly pessimistic. Naturally there's a lot of speculation and assumptions involved, so, in the end, it's really difficult to make solid predictions.

[I Have Questions]

This fact based assessment suggests the number of LDS Missionaries is more about historic birth rates than it is about increasing proportions of faith and devotion. More information is always better.

in my opinion, the article is worth reading, as are the comments, some of which suggest that the author of the article is unduly pessimistic. Naturally there's a lot of speculation and assumptions involved, so, in the end, it's really difficult to make solid predictions.

Yes. Although the general thought that missionary numbers proportionally (and with a lag of 18 or so years) track birth rates is an interesting one. Those birth rates dip from 2008, so missionary numbers might be reasonably expected to dip from the end of next year onwards. If the increase in numbers is a sign of increasing faith, will MG agree that decreasing numbers represents decreasing faith? I’m guessing he lacks the integrity to see the inconsistency and lack of veracity in his grand generalisations about LDS Youth.

[I Have Questions]

I thought this was interesting and relevant...Link

Despite less than half of Americans ranking religion as an important part of their daily life, America is still more devout when it comes to religion than its economic peers, such as the United Kingdom or Germany, new data from Gallup shows.

The data, published by Gallup last Thursday, show that the percentage of U.S. adults who say religion is an important part of their daily lives has fallen from 66% in 2015 to 49% today. This 17-point decline ranks among the largest declines in religiosity Gallup has recorded in any country over a 10-year period since 2007.

America is catching up to its secular economic peers. And quickly.