$30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

[Dr Exiled]

How long before claimed "bias" is used as an excuse for failure to account for valid criticism? Team bayes are probably conscious of this excuse at all times as it is the only response. The Dales were pretty quick to accuse the "haters" with bias. I'm sure KR will do the same thing as time goes on.

I'd like to find out the answer to this question but am unsure if bayes would help: What's the likelihood KR suffers from cognitive dissonance given how he will refuse to take up Dr. Moore's challenge?

It seems the two propositions are part of the same animal. Someone willing to go where the evidence leads will want criticism from all corners. But someone suffering from cognitive dissonance will run from the challenge.

[Philo Sofee]

That’s funny doc. He’s starting to grasp why Team Bayes has produced nothing more than Mopologetic porn.

If you’re endeavoring a statistical analysis, but realize the underlying dataset is statistically invalid, what is the intellectually honest thing to do next?

I would propose using Bayes Theorem correctly. But that's just me. Look, it's KR saying over and over again he is using Carrier, not me, so when I look into Carrier "Proving History" he is not using multiplying probabilities in a statistical sense at all. He is using conditional probabilities both those in favor of historicity of a claim and the non-historicity of the claim and using evidence to see which claim or its opposite has the higher probability. It is evidence that determines the consequent probability. I don't see KR using any of this. Yet it is exactly what Carrier is elaborating on for hundreds of pages! So KR has lost me. Why bring up Carrier and his Bayesian use if you aren't going to use it? I hope I am missing something here because I want to see KR's materials on this and his research and methods, which, if he is being truthful is going to be the same way Carrier is doing it. So far, I don't see this. What am I missing? Multiplying probabilities and making sure they are independent is not what Carrier does. He is dealing with conditional probabilities, not independent probabilities such as coin flips and dice rolls.

[Philo Sofee]

How long before claimed "bias" is used as an excuse for failure to account for valid criticism? Team bayes are probably conscious of this excuse at all times as it is the only response. The Dales were pretty quick to accuse the "haters" with bias. I'm sure KR will do the same thing as time goes on.

I'd like to find out the answer to this question but am unsure if bayes would help: What's the likelihood KR suffers from cognitive dissonance given how he will refuse to take up Dr. Moore's challenge?

It seems the two propositions are part of the same animal. Someone willing to go where the evidence leads will want criticism from all corners. But someone suffering from cognitive dissonance will run from the challenge.

I wonder how KR and team Bayes would react if I were to say it would only be 1 in 10^40 that someone with cognitive dissonance would in fact face the challenge...

[Gadianton]

He starts with "in the majority of cases," followed by an example clearly chosen to be independent (which still fails, because, since the pandemic

Hilarious. And brilliant.

The third variable is not time. His imagined correlation of multiple incidents of haircuts/covid contractions, measured per week, completely misses the point that it is the two variables and their relation to the third

Right -- he was actually thinking about how he could correlate the two variables to each other.

Thinking about that test hypothesis.

To the credit of the Dales, the many pieces of evidence made sense as data points for his test hypothesis of matching statements in the Book of Mormon to what's in Coe's book. I'm having trouble imagining a test hypothesis that matches SR's data.

for instance, let's say it's that the Book of Mormon is ancient. The eight witnesses handling plates is the right sort of thing to get considered as evidence for the Book of Mormon as ancient. But that it was a long and ambitious book? How would that make it likely to be ancient? Chiasmus is potential evidence of ancient, but Early Modern English? If it's substantially Early Modern English, then that counts significantly against it as ancient.

So his test hypothesis must something really vague, like "Joseph Smith couldn't have been the author" or "nobody could have been the author".

[Dr Moore]

So where are we after a few days? KR has not even tried to take a serious look at establishing statistical independence among Bayesian conditional probability functions.

From Gee and Dales, zippo.

Garbage-in, garbage-out.

[Doctor Scratch]

Dr. Moore—

Can you clarify something? Is the $10,000 for Rasmussen something that would be given in his name to Mopologetics? Or would he get to personally pocket the money?

[Dr Moore]

Dr. Moore—

Can you clarify something? Is the $10,000 for Rasmussen something that would be given in his name to Mopologetics? Or would he get to personally pocket the money?

To the Interpreter, in his name.

[Doctor Scratch]

Dr. Moore—

Can you clarify something? Is the $10,000 for Rasmussen something that would be given in his name to Mopologetics? Or would he get to personally pocket the money?

To the Interpreter, in his name.

Would it be possible to change the terms of the deal?

[Dr Moore]

To the Interpreter, in his name.

Would it be possible to change the terms of the deal?

A new one could be outlined. What’s your proposal?

[Dr Exiled]

I think the terms should be changed Dr. Moore, if I am right in what Dr. Scratch is going to propose. Let's see what KR will do. He can do whatever he wants with what he gets from the challenge, but I like having the incentives increased to see what our hero will do in this morality play. Will he do the right thing and have some coin to devote to worthy causes or will he cave to the mopes.