The List

[Dr. Shades]

I’ll note these are the same people who say workers don’t want to work anymore, that workers have too much time off, and that they want to run the government like a business.

I thought that was Donald Trump only, not anyone else.

[canpakes]

.
Something has gone wrong with Trump’s promise to bring down food costs ‘fast’. As well, farmers are having a tough go of things.

USDA farm income forecast: Expenses up $21B — record farm debt predicted
Dennis Rudat, Farm News Media


Citing major cost increases of 28% for fuel and 15.3% for fertilizer, USDA predicts 2026 farm production expenses will total $492.8 billion, up $21.2 billion — or 4.5% — from 2025. Farm debt is predicted to hit a record $605.1 billion, up $26.4 billion, or 4.6%, from 2025. | Photo by Central Farm Service

September 4, 2026

News flash — USDA’s latest 2026 economic forecast predicts production costs will be up, farm debt is growing rapidly and scratching a profit for crop production in 2026 will be a stretch, if not impossible. Sarcasm aside, the report confirms what farmers already knew first-hand.

USDA’s September 2026 net farm income forecast projects net farm income will total $158.4 billion, down $4.3 billion from USDA’s revised 2025 estimate of approximately $162.7 billion.

If realized, American Farm Bureau Economists Faith Parum and Daniel Munch say the 2.6% decline becomes considerably larger after adjusting for inflation, at $9.1 billion, marking a 5.5% drop from 2025.

In a new Market Intel Report, the economists said the expense outlook has “deteriorated significantly,” since USDA’s February forecast of a $6.1 billion increase, with production expenses now expected to spike by an additional $15.1 billion.

“Fuel and oil expenses are now projected to jump 28.8%, fertilizer expenses are up 15.3% and livestock purchases are up 11.4% from their earlier forecast,” the economists reported, with total farm production expenses now projected at $492.8 billion in 2026, up $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, from 2025.

Direct government payments, including ad hoc and traditional farm bill program payments, are forecast to reach $47.4 billion in 2026, up nearly 70% from 2025, illustrating the widening gap between market returns and production costs.


Bar graph of the US Farm income and expenses

Production expenses

According to Parum and Munch, production costs were one of the most significant changes in USDA’s September outlook, with several major categories moving higher.

With a staggering 28% increase, fuel and oil cost increases led the pack increasing $4.8 billion to $21.6 billion. Fertilizer expenses increased $5.3 billion, or 15.3%, to $39.6 billion, while marketing, storage and transportation expenses are forecast to increase $1.3 billion, or 12%, to $12.1 billion.

“The sharp increases now projected for fuel and fertilizer are particularly important given renewed conflict in the Middle East. Fighting involving Iran has again disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed Brent crude above $96 per barrel, increasing the risk of further pressure on energy, transportation and fertilizer costs,” the economists said.

Crops

USDA’s September forecast shows a much stronger 2026 outlook for crop receipts than the February projection. Total crop cash receipts are now projected at $253 billion, up $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, from 2025. After adjusting for inflation, crop receipts are still expected to increase 3.1%.

The largest revisions were concentrated in several major row crops, including corn receipts now expected to increase $6.8 billion, or 11.3%, to $67.3 billion, based largely on additional bushels sold.

Soybean receipts are forecast to rise $4.3 billion, or 10%, to $47.9 billion, primarily on higher prices, compared with essentially no growth projected in February.

The projections for specialty crop receipts were mixed. Vegetable and melon receipts are projected to increase $3.8 billion, or 15%, to $28.8 billion. Fruit and nut receipts, however, are now expected to decline slightly, down about $140 million, or 0.4%, to $34.7 billion.

Taken together, the AFBF economists said USDA’s September update points to stronger revenue expectations across much of the crop sector than earlier in the year, particularly for corn, soybeans, and vegetables.

“But the gains remain uneven, and higher receipts come alongside sharply higher expectations for fertilizer, fuel and other production costs, limiting the extent to which stronger sales translate into improved farm margins,” they added.

Livestock

USDA also revised its livestock outlook higher than the February estimate, though receipts are still expected to retreat from a very strong 2025. Cash receipts are now projected to fall 5.4% to $287.3 billion for 2026, a decline of 8.1% after adjusting for inflation.

Cattle and calves remain the strongest part of the sector, with receipts forecast to rise $7 billion, or 5.2%, to $140.7 billion.

But the economists emphasize strong cattle prices are a supply story years in the making, with the U.S. beef cow herd near historic lows following years of drought-driven liquidation and elevated production costs.

“The forecast may not fully capture the sharp decline in cattle prices that occurred following the administration’s recent proclamation to import 660 million pounds of beef,” the economists cautioned.

“Cattle farmers and ranchers in many regions have seen cattle values fall, creating losses that could weigh on actual farm revenues beyond what is reflected in USDA’s current outlook.”

Milk receipts are still expected to fall $2.1 billion, or 4.3%, to $46.8 billion, while hog receipts are expected to fall $1.2 billion.

Poultry market projections are more mixed egg receipts are expected to plunge by $20.9 billion — or 66.3%, — to $10.6 billion, broiler receipts fall $1.3 billion, or 2.8%, to $43.3 billion, while turkey receipts rise $2 billion, or 35.1%, to $7.5 billion.

Farm finances

Farm debt continues to climb, with USDA’s September update predicting a record $605.1 billion in 2026, up $26.4 billion, or 4.6%, from 2025.

The sector’s debt-to-asset ratio is expected to inch up from 13.34% to 13.54%, meaning farmers will carry slightly more debt for every dollar of assets they own. Working capital is now expected to increase 3.5% in 2026, after falling 15% in 2025.

Looking ahead, USDA still expects real farm income to decline in 2026, production expenses to rise sharply, debt to increase and returns to remain uneven across sectors.

“Government payments via ad-hoc assistance and the farm safety net continue to provide an important bridge, but until market returns keep pace with production costs, many farmers will continue to face tight margins and difficult financial decisions heading into 2027,” the economists concluded.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

I’ll note these are the same people who say workers don’t want to work anymore, that workers have too much time off, and that they want to run the government like a business.

I thought that was Donald Trump only, not anyone else.

What’s it like waking up from a coma?

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

What else can be said at this point?

[Jersey Girl]

What else can be said at this point?

Running? Don't think so. Two firemen lifted him up? Heck, It takes 2 to lift me up so yeah, no I don't think so.

For reference, I weigh less than half of DJT's body weight.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

What else can be said at this point?

Running? Don't think so. Two firemen lifted him up? Heck, It takes 2 to lift me up so yeah, no I don't think so.

For reference, I weigh less than half of DJT's body weight.

He wasn't there. It's exhausting.

[Jersey Girl]

He wasn't there.

I know.

It's exhausting.

Only if you consume it. We have to pull our heads out and live. We already know whatever he's spewing throughout any given day is 100% grade A BS. I know what's going on by reading headlines and thumbnail titles on youtube. I keep viewing down to a minimum.

Touch grass and all that jazz.

[canpakes]

We already know whatever he's spewing throughout any given day is 100% grade A BS.

I disagree. It’s more of a grade D bullshyte.

[canpakes]

.
Trump’s War on Affordability has achieved a record by making diesel fuel the most expensive it has ever been in the Nation’s history.



(We probably just need to win the war with Iraq a few dozen more times and these Trumpflation prices will surely come down, right?)

[Gadianton]

Back when Biden was president (even though Hound maintains he cheated and wasn't really the president), my right-wing friend was flying off the handle over diesel prices. He had all these ideas for bringing diesel prices down the Democrats weren't going to do a damn thing about it. I suppose I'm shocked by this news because he hasn't brought it up at all lately. The only time he brought up gas prices was to somebody else I know, he claimed that going to war with Iran would result in cheap gas because we were going to take it all.