$30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

[Gadianton]

Right. If he was trying to convince people that he spoke to God and had the powers he claimed, then we would expect (Bayesian at work here) something like a Biblical fan text, accounts of seeing God and angels

Yes, but his specific prior probability is "chance of ancient authenticity".

The consistency of his visions or even if his visions are real have nothing to do with the Book of Mormon as ancient. Inspired fiction or twenty other possibilities.

If you expand the project to what he really meant, instead of what he actually put on paper, that in extremely broad terms, is Joseph Smith and his work what he claimed it to be? Okay, once it's established that we're evaluating the components of a cult, then are 8 super loyal followers who toe the party line correlated with a long, rambling manifesto? Yes, I think so.

and yes: turning 5 to 6: change length of document to length of chapter (granting it's relevant when it really isn't).

[Dr Moore]

Episode 2 is up.

https://interpreterfoundation.org/estim ... vidence-2/

So now KR wants to conflate odds of Joseph Smith “telling the truth” about the first vision, with whether or not the Book of Mormon is true. Let’s count the ways this logic is non sequitur, not to mention the totally uncontrolled assessment process followed by KR.

1. How many contemporaries of Joseph were telling the truth about claimed angelic visitations?
2. Joseph may have believed he saw anything at all, but how is that subjective reality at all linked to the objective historicity of the Book of Mormon?
3. KR assigns a slight negative for the FV account variations, but is this just a case of an easy “one” or “two” to throw into his cherry picked sharpshooter collection of “sixes?”

Episode 2 honestly makes the whole thing hardly worth reading further.

[Philo Sofee]

Episode 2 is up.

https://interpreterfoundation.org/estim ... vidence-2/

So now Kyler Rasmussen wants to conflate odds of Joseph Smith “telling the truth” about the first vision, with whether or not the Book of Mormon is true. Let’s count the ways this logic is non sequitur, not to mention the totally uncontrolled assessment process followed by Kyler Rasmussen.

1. How many contemporaries of Joseph were telling the truth about claimed angelic visitations?
2. Joseph may have believed he saw anything at all, but how is that subjective reality at all linked to the objective historicity of the Book of Mormon?
3. Kyler Rasmussen assigns a slight negative for the FV account variations, but is this just a case of an easy “one” or “two” to throw into his cherry picked sharpshooter collection of “sixes?”

Episode 2 honestly makes the whole thing hardly worth reading further.

The bizarre thing is he really, actually thinks this is a valid way to go about it... ayiyi. And watch. Apologists will slobber all over how valuable and good this is! I am just miffed he sees any kind of connection at all with the First Vision and the Book of Mormon. Good God this is crazy aces!

[Gadianton]

Yeah, given it has nothing to do with the Book of Mormon as ancient I just couldn't get the steam going to read it -- but wait. Seriously, if you have proof that God and Jesus really did visit Joseph Smith, then who cares if the Book of Mormon is ancient? That's got the gimmick charade backwards. That's like proving Jesus is the Son of God in order to establish that he really did heal the sick.

3. Kyler Rasmussen assigns a slight negative for the FV account variations, but is this just a case of an easy “one” or “two” to throw into his cherry picked sharpshooter collection of “sixes?”

I'm sure that's the point. However, even if somehow the analysis went in the wrong direction, does it really matter when there is no limit to the number of times you can roll the dice for another 6?

It's not unexpected that a story if it really happened would show inconsistencies when told a number of times over the course of years. But it is also not unexpected that a story if it really did not happen would show inconsistences when told a number of times of the course of years.

And thanks to Dave6 for putting the Bayes back into Bayes.

[drumdude]

I prophesy that there will not be 23 episodes of this...

[Philo Sofee]

Gad
does it really matter when there is no limit to the number of times you can roll the dice for another 6?

It does because he HAS to also count the misses also. Yes, I know we all understand that, the question is, does KR?

[Dr Moore]

I'm sure that's the point. However, even if somehow the analysis went in the wrong direction, does it really matter when there is no limit to the number of times you can roll the dice for another 6?

Bingo.

[Dr Moore]

In the comments to episode 2, Kyler responds to a comment (emphasis mine):

Kyler Rasmussen on July 15, 2021 at 10:34 am
Hi Robert. Allen gets it spot on with his comment. This series is intended as a review and high-level analysis of all the available evidence (particularly evidence that the critics enjoy focusing on), so it’s inevitable (and intended) that I tread ground that’s already been trod.

All in 23 episodes, no less.

It's already apparent Dr. Rasmussen intends to neglect most of the "ones" through "fives" so I feel he should embrace the label "Mopologetic porn" and set up a separate site at www.mormhub.com to host his media.

The page below contains at least 23 uniquely identified "problems" with Book of Mormon historicity. I wonder how many of those evidences will be fully considered with all the creative flair Kyler has to offer? If Dr. Rasmussen has a non-believing twin in a parallel universe, perhaps that twin will use these 23 negative "evidences" rather than the hand-picked 23 selected by our version of Kyler?

https://www.ldsdiscussions.com/anachronisms

[Philo Sofee]

Good eye Dr. Moore. Ah the joys of manipulation of data....Lol! Does it ever dawn on these guys how much they actually do manipulate stuff in order to be right?! I wonder if they ever ask themselves "how come I have to do it this way?"

[Gadianton]

https://interpreterfoundation.org/estim ... vidence-3/

TL;DR