LDS retention rates for BIC members is in serious decline in the USA

[I Have Questions]

A new article from Jana Riess

Alex Bass, as part of his Mormon Metrics substack, has analyzed data from several national surveys while helping Benjamin Knoll and me with the quantitative research for our forthcoming book on the Mormon faith crisis. As always, when we’re looking at data about a small minority, we need to be mindful that the margin of error can be high.

Still, over the long term, there’s little question that more people are leaving the church now in the U.S. compared with in the past. A graph from the General Social Survey, which asked about childhood religion as well as current religion, shows we’ve gone from retaining over three-quarters of childhood Latter-day Saints through the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, to keeping around 40% in the 2020s — a statistically significant drop.

Jana continues

In 2007, according to Pew, the church retained 70% of childhood members in the U.S. In 2014, that was 64%, and in 2023–24 it had declined still further to 54%.

That 54% current retention rate looks better than the GSS’ 38%, so that’s potentially good news for Latter-day Saint leaders. But, once again, we’re witnessing a clear drop from the fairly recent past. Both major U.S. surveys that track childhood affiliation are saying that more people are leaving than used to do so.

What’s more, this is being driven by younger adults. In the general population, younger adults are noticeably more likely to have no religious affiliation than older adults — either because they’ve left religion or they grew up without one. It shouldn’t surprise us that it’s true in Mormonism as well.

LDS membership reporting at General Conference remains just a total of the list of names on a database of people listed as members. And it no way correlates with how many people show up in a Mormon Church on any given Sunday. Nor does it reflect the relative “strength” of the Church because an increasing number of those names no longer consider themselves Mormon.

[Dwight]

Anecdotal source, but I know late GenX, Xennials (which I am) and elder millennials who are waiting for grandma/grandpa to die, or their parents. Though I think one the grandma has lived so long now they are back in the boat with their parents starting to be that age they would just as soon not rock the boat if they can. I happily maintained a don’t ask/don’t tell position with my parents for years until my hand was forced. It helped that I was never close enough for priesthood things (baby blessings, baptism, Holy Ghost, priesthood) or temple things. I didn’t do much to actively hide it (stopped wearing garments), but I also didn’t go out of my way to say my wife and I had discussed something over our morning coffee.

[drumdude]

Anecdotal source, but I know late GenX, Xennials (which I am) and elder millennials who are waiting for grandma/grandpa to die, or their parents. Though I think one the grandma has lived so long now they are back in the boat with their parents starting to be that age they would just as soon not rock the boat if they can. I happily maintained a don’t ask/don’t tell position with my parents for years until my hand was forced. It helped that I was never close enough for priesthood things (baby blessings, baptism, Holy Ghost, priesthood) or temple things. I didn’t do much to actively hide it (stopped wearing garments), but I also didn’t go out of my way to say my wife and I had discussed something over our morning coffee.

This is exactly what is happening. Once the boomers in the family are gone, so is the intolerance, judgement, and pressure to conform to traditional belief in Mormonism.

Thank God for this. It’s going to be a huge improvement for the religion.

[Everybody Wang Chung]

Mormon retention in the U.S., has dropped from over 75% in the late 20th century to around 38%?

As Fibber MG likes to say, "That's some great missionary work."

[Dr. Sunstoned]

The church knows exactly the percentage of active members. They count them every week. If those numbers were positive and faith-promoting, they would be published and bragged about. But there're not, so they don't.

[I Have Questions]

The church knows exactly the percentage of active members. They count them every week. If those numbers were positive and faith-promoting, they would be published and bragged about. But there're not, so they don't.

Yes. They are not telling the whole story so as to portray that the Church has a bigger membership than it really does in practice. Honesty

Lying is intentionally deceiving others. Bearing false witness is one form of lying. The Lord gave this commandment to the children of Israel: “Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour” (Exodus 20:16). Jesus also taught this when He was on earth (see Matthew 19:18). There are many other forms of lying. When we speak untruths, we are guilty of lying. We can also intentionally deceive others by a gesture or a look, by silence, or by telling only part of the truth. Whenever we lead people in any way to believe something that is not true, we are not being honest.

The Church does not practice what it preaches. (See the SEC judgement for another clear example of this type of dishonest behaviour).

[I Have Questions]

The Deseret News attempts to put lipstick on the pig…

Amid the dramatic shift in religiousness in the United States, BYU researchers have worked to pull together available data on Latter-day Saints, examining their religiousness, well-being and retention. This comes at a time of growth for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints as well as high levels of engagement in the Church Educational System.

All is well!

Data show Latter-day Saints have maintained relatively high levels of faith even as the United States has experienced a general decline in religious activity. Latter-day Saints have the highest rate of church attendance of any major religion in the Pew Religious Landscape Survey and the highest rate of personal scripture reading and parents praying or reading scripture with their children. Using objective cell phone data, University of Chicago economist Devin Pope similarly found Latter-day Saints among the highest weekly church attenders in America.

What the article’s author (Justin Dyer, BYU Professor of religion) fails to point out is that the data in the survey referenced is from a pre-Covid period. So it’s more than 5 years old, and it’s prior to a significant global event that impacted the mindset of a lot of the population. Cell phone data from 2019 showing people popped into a place of worship does not address survey data from 2023/24 showing young people dropping away from religious attendance.

Professor Dyer’s methodology appears to be to start with a conclusion that young Mormons aren’t stopping activity at alarming rates, and then scout around to cherry pick data from anytime during the last decade to support that. There is some sort of mealy mouthed acknowledge of the problem...

As some have noted (see here and here), it’s true that Latter-day Saint retention has decreased over time, in line with national trends. What was 82% retention in the 1980s, dropped to 58% in the 2000s and then to around 50% in the years since. This religious retention has decreased in all generations of Latter-day Saints, but especially Millennial and Gen Z members.

"around 50% in the years since" is an attempt at spinning what Jana Riess articulates as

A graph from the General Social Survey, which asked about childhood religion as well as current religion, shows we’ve gone from retaining over three-quarters of childhood Latter-day Saints through the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, to keeping around 40% in the 2020s — a statistically significant drop.

(From the OP) And the best that Professor Dyer and his research minions at BYU can muster is...

Strikingly, however, Latter-day Saints are one of the faiths least likely to lose Millennial and Gen Z members. When it comes to identifying as a Latter-day Saint and also regularly attending church, Latter-day Saints are retaining active Millennial and Gen Z members at a higher rate than all other Christian denominations, except Adventists.

[Kishkumen]

The story worth paying attention to here is the overall decline in membership and participation in churches. No doubt people continue to have their spiritual views and practices, but they are less likely to invest the time into participation in a traditional religious community. Of course, this is not a universal phenomenon. In some places, affiliation with churches is increasing, and there are those people who are converting and joining churches. The net impact, however, is still a decrease in overall numbers. Fewer people are churchgoers. I am guessing that some of the big factors contributing to this are: heavy online activity, burdensome employment obligations, and the politicization of churches.

There are so many moving parts in the average person's life right now that it is all a person can do to keep up with it all. Adding a demanding church life to that may be too much. Now, not a few of the complications are arguably "voluntary," but they are so common that it is difficult to call them entirely so. Rather, they constitute cultural shifts that draw mass numbers of people to change their habits and way of life in ways that are incompatible with devoting ~10 hours a week to religious activities. Let me put this in the form of a question to which I have no answer: If I am spending tens of hours a week streaming shows, scouring YouTube, and participating in social media platforms, am I more or less likely to pray, read the Bible, and attend to all kinds of in-person church activities? Another salient question: If my employment situation is precarious, and I have to cobble together a gig-economy means of self-support, do I have the time and energy to devote to a church community?

Where and how we spend our time reflects our real commitments. When our religious life transforms into time spent in digital life, what happens to in-person church communities? When we are working a bunch of temporary part-time jobs, are we also finding time to attend Sunday meetings?

[malkie]

I suspect that the dropping of physical meetings during COVID, and the apparent reluctance of the church, at least initially, to allow online participation in services - including partaking of the sacramental bread & water - may have given some members a bit of breathing space to reconsider just what church attendance is worth.

Perhaps I may have been instrumental in some folks' reconsiderations: I became aware of a number of Mormons who would have dearly loved to have been able to take the sacrament weekly, but who were not willing/able to take the risk of having people coming to their homes to administer it in person. I pointed out that they could at least partake monthly, risk free, if they were inclined to accept the online sacrament participation offered by the CoC. In particular, some participated through Beyond the Walls - at the time, a fledgling program that was available online through the Toronto Centre Place congregation, where John Hamer was (still is) pastor.

Through Beyond the Walls, one prepared the physical elements - bread and water, or a suitable substitute - at home, and the sacrament prayers said by CoC priesthood holders online were considered to be effective for anyone logged in. in my opinion (yep - who am I to "constrain" the god I don't believe in ‽‽) a reasonable god would have found that to be acceptable under the circumstances.

[I Have Questions]

The key dynamic being highlighted is that there has been a dramatic increase in the ratio of children born into the Church going on to leave activity once they reach adulthood. Children of existing members was (is?) the strength of the growing membership. Couple this with the fact that Mormon families are having fewer children than ever before, and it's a real concern for the Church going forward.